Sunday, June 1, 2014

Free Agent Follies

With the first month of the season almost over, it’s become clear that some Mets fans, based on comments I’ve read over at Mets.com, believe Curtis Granderson to be the second coming of Jason Bay. Some think he’s even worse.  I simply just don’t understand that mentality.  Maybe it’s born out of the fact that we’ve had remarkably few highlights in our 50+ years of existence and way too many lowlights.  I see the same attitude among Jets fans.  In emergency preparedness, the saying is, “Plan for the worst, hope for the best” but when it comes to being a Mets fan, it seems to be, “Plan for the worst, expect nothing less”.  Who knows, perhaps the Granderson signing will turn out to be a horrible one for the Mets, but as I’ve said before, lets wait and see before we make a judgment on that.  I’m certainly not going to equate Curtis Granderson to Jason Bay 25 games into his Mets career.
However, it did get me to thinking that the Mets have never really had great success with free agent signings, at least that is the perception.  So I decided to look back over the past 20 years at some of the free agents we’ve signed, and since I’m a teacher, give each of those signings a grade.  I only operated with two rules.  One, they had to be a legitimate free agent signing, somebody we snagged away from another team, so someone like Mike Piazza, who we traded for and then re-signed when he became a free agent didn’t count. Two, they had to be signed to major league deals, leaving out guys like R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd who we signed to minor league deals.  Lastly, one note on statistics.  The phrase “slash line” has become popular in the past few years.  For those of you not familiar with it, a slash line is simply a player’s batting average, followed by his on-base percentage, and lastly his slugging percentage.  Those 3 numbers are usually written like this: .297/.346/.498, hence the term “slash line”.  The one stat I simply hate is OPS, which is on base + slugging.  Why do I hate it?  Because those two stats are usually given separately, so OPS is just a number for those too lazy to do a little math in their heads.  It’s probably a teacher thing.  Anyway, without further ado…

Eddie Murray Career .287/.359/.476
Murray was signed to a 4-year contract before the 1992 season.  He would play only 2 years for the Mets, and given that he was near the end of what would turn out to be a HOF career, did pretty well.  In 1992 he went .261/.336/.423 with 16HR and 93RBI.  In 1993 he did even better, going .285/.325/.467 with 27HR and 100RBI.  The problem with Murray is that he was part of the ’92 team that lost 90 games and was famously dubbed by columnist/author Bob Klapisch, “The Worst Team Money Could Buy”.  Looking at the numbers he put up in 1992, you certainly can’t blame Murray for the 90 losses, and if you told me Duda would have the same season this year, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
Grade B+


Bobby Bonilla Career .279/.358/.472
Bonilla probably best symbolized the failure of that ’92 team simply because he was THE big free agent signing that year.  I remember watching ESPN the night when Sportscenter said, “According to sources, Bobby Bonilla will sign with the Mets” (or something to that effect) and thinking, “YES, we got him!”  I guess we were all hoping that Bonilla was the Scottie Pippen to Barry Bonds’ Michael Jordan and he would prove to be a superstar of his own right away from Bonds. That’s probably a bad analogy because in looking back, other than division titles, those Bucs of the early 90s never won anything.  And in the end, Bonilla never lived up to the contract he signed.  However, his numbers weren’t as terrible as you’d think.  Time, and a lack of overall success for the team, has a funny way of distorting the truth.
1992 19HR, 70RBI, .249/.348/.432
1993 34HR, 87RBI, .265/.352/.522
1994 20HR, 67RBI, .290/.374/.504
The four years prior to joining the Mets, he averaged 24.5HR and 101RBI, which might make you wonder why I would say his overall numbers weren’t so terrible.  But consider this.  In those 4 years he played 159, 163,160, and 157 games.  In the 3 years with the Mets he played 128, 139, and 108 games.  If he had gotten 600 ABs in those 3 years, his RBI numbers extrapolate out to 96, 104, and 100.
Before looking back at the stats, I never would have imagined saying this, but I have to give Bonilla a grade of B.

Robin Ventura .267/.362/.444
Ventura was signed to a 5-year deal before the 1999 season, and after Year 1 it looked like a tremendous signing.  In ’99 he hit 32 HR and had 120 RBI (which I think at the time was a team record) with a .301/.379/.529 slash line.  In the postseason, our first since 1988, he famously hit the Grand Slam Single to win Game 5 of the LCS vs. the Braves.  He, along with Rey Ordonez, Edgardo Alfonzo, and John Olerud made the cover of Sports Illustrated with the headline, “The Best Infield Ever?” Unfortunately, it was all downhill after that first season.  In 2000 and 2001, his production dropped significantly in all categories (24 HR, 84 RBI, .232/.338/.439 and 21 HR, 61 RBI, .237/.359/.419) and he was traded to the Yankees after the 2001 season.  Helping us get to our first back-to-back postseasons ever earns him some bonus points, but you can’t ignore those Year 2 and 3 numbers when assigning a grade.
Grade C+

Todd Zeile .265/.346/.423
Zeile was signed to a 3-year deal after the ’99 season to replace John Olerud, who had signed with the Mariners.  Based on his career numbers, we got pretty much what you’d expect from him.  He played 2 years for us and in 2000 hit 22 HR, 79 RBI, .268/.356/.467 and in 2001, 10 HR, 62 RBI, .266/.359/.373.  He was also quite durable, playing in 153 and 151 games, and while he wasn’t nearly as good defensively as Olerud, I don’t remember him being a liability.  He’s probably best remembered for his near-HR in Game 1 of the World Series vs. the Yankees.  With Timo Perez on 1st, he launched a deep fly ball that many, including Timo, thought was a HR.  Unfortunately, it hit off the very top of the wall, and a well-executed relay nailed Timo, who wasn’t running at full speed at first because he thought it was a HR, at the plate.  Those 2 runs would prove to be crucial when He Who Shall Not be Named blew the game in the 9th and we eventually lost in extra innings.  The great thing is, til this day, every Mets fan I know, myself included, believe had we won Game 1, we would’ve won that WS.
Given that Zeile pretty much delivered what you’d expect from him, I’d have to give him a B+.

Tom Glavine career ERA 3.54
Glavine was signed to a 5-year deal before the 2003 season.  While he never enjoyed the level of success he had with the Braves, he did go 61-56 over his 5 years and averaged almost 33 starts a year.  Take away his disastrous first year, 9-14 4.52 ERA and his record of 52-42 isn’t all that bad.  However, his ERA all 5 years (4.52, 3.60, 3.53, 3.82, 4.45) was over his career figure.  His best year was the only year the Mets reached the playoffs, 2006, when he went 15-7.  In the postseason he went 2-1 in 3 games with an ERA of 1.59.  He will be best (or worst) remembered for his last game as a Met.  In the final game of the 2007 season, after an historic September collapse where they blew a 7 game lead with 17 to play, the Mets needed to beat the Marlins to force a 3-team (Padres, Rockies) playoff for the wild card.  In hindsight, the Mets may have been better off having me pitch the game.  Glavine lasted only 1/3 of an inning and gave up 7 runs.  Mets fans have never forgiven him.
Grade C 

Pedro Martinez  2.93 ERA
Like Ventura, Pedro’s grade was looking pretty good after Year 1 of his 4-year deal.  He was 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA.  He started 31 games, and struck out 208 in 217 innings.  After the Art Howe years, he helped to re-energize the team and the fan base, and his starts brought an electricity back to Shea that had been missing for several years.  Alas, he would make only 48 more starts for the Mets over the next 3 years, including zero during the 2006 postseason, as injuries took their toll.    He wound up going 32-23.  In 2006 he was 9-8 with a 4.48 ERA and in 2008 he was 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA, some pretty ugly numbers for a pitcher of his caliber.  2008 saw another September swoon by the Mets which Pedro certainly contributed to, going 0-3 during that final month.  However, he was one of the few bright spots during the 2007 collapse.  All 5 of his starts that year came in September and he went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 32 in 28 innings.  It would’ve been interesting to see what he would’ve done in that postseason had we made it there.
My favorite Pedro memory involves a game he didn’t even pitch in.  In June 2006, my buddy Joe and I went to see the Mets play in Boston (how not to do a road trip to Boston: leave LI around 2PM, get to Boston just in time for the game, watch the game, drive right back to LI).  When they showed Pedro on the scoreboard, he got a tremendous ovation.  A Sox fan in front of us turned to Joe and I and said, “I hope we play you guys in the WS and Petey pitches a no-hitter in Game 1 and we win the next 4.”
32-23 wasn’t what we were expecting when we signed Petey, but his signing did help legitimize the team again and showed that we were willing to spend money.  Grade C+

Carlos Beltran .283/.358/.497
Beltran was signed to a 7-year deal before the 2005 season.  In a baseball preview section of one of the newspapers that spring, I remember reading one columnist writing something to the effect that the numbers Beltran would produce during his Mets career would insure he’d go into the HOF as a Met.  Let’s look at his numbers for all 7 years.
2005      151 games   16 HR, 78 RBI     .266/.330/.414       17 SB
2006      140 games   41 HR, 116 RBI    .275/.388/.594     18 SB
2007      144 games   33 HR, 112 RBI    .276/.353/.525      23 SB
2008      161 games    27 HR, 112 RBI    .284/.376/.500    25 SB
2009      81 games    10 HR, 48 RBI      .325/.415/.500      11 SB
2010      64 games     7 HR, 27 RBI        .255/.341/.427      3 SB
2011        98 games    15 HR, 66 RBI      .289/.391/.513      3 SB (traded midyear for Zach Wheeler, was on pace for close to 100 RBI)
You could make the argument that 2006-2008 was the greatest 3-year period for an offensive player in the history of the Mets.  What made his 2006 all the more impressive is that he produced those 41 HR and 116 RBI in only 140 games.  While we all remember his 2006 postseason for the called strike 3 curveball he took against Adam Wainwright with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of the LCS, he did hit .278/.422/.556 in 10 games with 3HR and 5 RBI.  And as all was falling to pieces in September 2007 and 2008, all Beltran did was hit 8 HR, 27 RBI, .282/.328/..555 and 6 HR, 19 RBI, .344/.440/.645.  You can’t ask for much more than that.
Take away his two injury plagued years, and Beltran gets an  A+, but they have to be taken into account, but I need to give out at least one A, so his grade is A-.

Billy Wagner  2.31 ERA, 85.9% save percentage
Like Zeile, the Mets pretty much got what they expected out of Billy Wagner.  He was signed to a 4-year deal before the 2006 season.  About 2/3 of the way through the 2008 season, he hurt his elbow and returned to pitch in a couple of games in late August 2009 before being traded to Boston.  He saved 101 games in 118 chances for a save percentage of 85.6%.  He easily averaged over a K in inning from 06-08 (227 in 187.2IP) and his ERA those 3 years was 2.24, 2.63, and 2.30.  Based on his regular season numbers (and going 5 for 6 on saves in Sept 2007), I’d be willing to give out my second A , but like a student who does well on the multiple choice part of a test, Billy didn’t fare so well during the written portion, aka the postseason.  In 2006, he appeared in 6 games, going 0-1, converting all 3 of his save opportunities.  His ERA was 9.53, he gave up 10 hits in 5.2IP and had a very ugly .370 batting average against.  Look just at his LCS numbers vs. the Cards, and things get even uglier.  A 16.87 ERA and .476 BAA.  He lost Game 2, coming into a tie game in the top of the 9th and giving up 3 runs.  In Game 6 he was brought in for the 9th to protect a 4-0 lead and gave up 2 runs.  If you had looked at his postseason numbers with the Astros, none of this would’ve surprised you.  He went to the postseason 4 times with Houston, 1997-99, 2001.  5 games, 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9.64 ERA, runs allowed in 3 of the 5 outings.  Furthermore, he appeared in 5 All-Star Games (2 as a Met), and gave up runs in 3 of the 5, and had an ASG ERA of 10.80. If memory serves me, I think he also blew a save in one of those ASG.  Needless to say, he wasn’t exactly clutch when it counted the most.
Grade B+

Francisco “Frankie” Rodriguez aka KRod   2.65 ERA, 84.5% save percentage, 1.17 WHIP
Although he only played for the Mets 3 years ago, here’s another guy who Mets fans seem to forget about what he actually did on the field and remember him more for the clubhouse incident with his father-in-law (more on that later). KRod was probably a victim of high, and most likely unrealistic, expectations.  When we signed him to a 3-year (with an option for a 4th) deal before the 2009 season, he was coming off his record-setting 62 save season, and in the 3 seasons prior to that had saved 45,47, and 40 games.  In 3 seasons with the Mets, he went 83 for 98 (84.7%) in save chances, saving 35, 25, and 23 games.  His contract called for the 4th year to vest at a ridiculously high salary if he closed a certain number of games in Year 3 of his contract (or during the first 3 years of the contract, not sure about that one), so the Mets traded him away before that 4th year could vest.  He had ERAs of 3.71, 2.20, and 3.16 and WHIPs of 1.31, 1.15, and 1.41.  He was a closer you always seemed to hold your breath with (which is pretty typical of Mets closers).
As I said, he’s best known for a clubhouse incident in which he punched his father-in-law (or the father of the mother of his child/girlfriend, it was always a bit sketchy as to what their actual relationship was) and I’ve always kiddingly said I was to blame for it.  Joe and I were at the game that night (side note: to Joe’s family, I was known as “Tom, the guy Joe goes to Mets games with”. Thankfully I’ve graduated to “Tom, godfather of Joe’s son, Owen”) and in the 8th inning (against the Rockies I believe), the Mets were in danger of blowing the game.  If ever a situation screamed for you to bring in your closer in the 8th inning, this was it.  Jerry Manuel, who was actually worse at managing the bullpen than TC is in my opinion, decided not to do that.  Whoever was brought in proceeded to blow the game and KRod never got in.  As we were leaving Citifield via the Bullpen gate, KRod was gathering his stuff up and I yelled, “KRod, you should’ve been in that game!!!”  He had to have heard me.  I was angry at Jerry, not KRod, but to this day I contend my words were echoing in his head when he went into the clubhouse, “Man, that guy was right, I should’ve been in that game”, he was upset, the father-in-law perhaps said the same thing to him (it’s never really come out what transpired) and KRod just lost his cool and hit him.  Until I hear otherwise, that’s the version of events I’m going with :-)
Grade B+

Jason Bay .266/.360/.481
One has to wonder if Bay secretly roots for Granderson to have a lousy Mets career so that he gets replaced as the poster child for bad free agent signings by the Mets.  I doubt it.  By all accounts he was a great guy in the clubhouse, and the announcers repeatedly would say if there was anyone to root for to turn things around, it was Bay.  Of course, by now his failure as a Met has become legendary.  Signed to a 4-year deal before the 2010 season, his first 3 years were so bad, the Mets bought out the 4th year of his contract so that he wouldn’t have to play for them.  His 3 year numbers look all the worse when you consider in 4 out of the 5 years before joining the Mets, he drove in 100+ runs, and 84 in the one year he didn’t reach 100.
2010    6 HR, 47 RBI      .259/.347/.402     95 games
2011      12 HR, 57 RBI     .245/.329/.374    123 games
and just when you think things can’t get any worse…
2012      8 HR, 20 RBI     .165/.237/.299     70 games
I’d give Bay an F, but his 2010 season, while not great, certainly wasn’t the worst ever, and it was cut short by a concussion he got after running into the wall (in LA I believe).  It’s that willingness to sacrifice his body on defense, and the fact that he handled himself with class, that saves him when it comes to his grade.
Grade D-

So there you go.  I’d love to hear your thoughts on my grades.  If anyone can think of any other free agent signings, I’d love to hear them as well.  I don’t remember the Mets being all that active in the early days of free agency in the mid-to -late 1970s.  And many of the Mets best players in the free agency era have either been homegrown talent (Strawberry, Doc, Wright, Alfonzo, Harvey, Niese, Hundley, Mookie, Dykstra, Backman) or acquired through trade (Hernandez, Darling, Carter, Hojo, Fernandez, Cone, Piazza, Hampton, Olerud, Delgado, McReynolds).  Maybe in the future I’ll grade the trades the Mets have made over the years.  Fregosi for Ryan anyone?

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