Thursday, October 22, 2015

This can't be a dream because I'm wide awake

As soon as the Mets finished off their NLCS sweep of the Cubs, I headed to Modell's to pick up some new shirts.  I arrived only a few minutes after the last out, around midnight, to find a line of a few hundred like-minded had already formed.  An hour later, I was back home, still too wired to even think of going to bed.  Instead, I started on Facebook what I thought would be a short post.  But when you are a combination of giddy, punch drunk, and sleep deprived (I was at 3 of the 4 Citifield playoff games, missing only Game 1 of the LCS for my brother-in-law's wedding), short posts turn into this...

I'm not even sure what to say at this point. As passionate a Mets fan as I have been over the years, I don't think I've ever been more emotionally invested in a team than this year's group. The 23 games I went to in the regular season could've easily been 33,43,53. 1986 is a distant memory. I was a senior in HS. The team was a collection of arrogant SOBs, and by early summer it was almost a foregone conclusion that we would win the World Series. Sure they made us sweat t out, but that only made their win all that much sweeter. Then there was the heartbreak of 1988, being 1 out away from going up 3-1 on the Dodgers in the NLCS only to see Mike Scioscia hit a game-tying HR off Doc Gooden and eventually losing in 7 games. 1999 and 2000 brought life back into the fan base and the franchise, and to this day Mets fan swear if Benetiez hadn't blown the save in Game 1 of the Subway Series, we would've beat the Yanks. But these are the Mets, a franchise that can never sustain excellence, so once again we had to endure a few years of futility. A few years of Art Howe. 2006. Time for us to rise again. Runaway with the NL East. Not quite 1986, but pretty damn good. Steam roll the Dodgers in the LDS. Home field advantage in the LCS against a rather mediocre Cardinals team. Game 7. The Endy Chavez catch that had me so excited I turned and gave Joe Roccaro a big kiss on his cheek. Fate. Destiny. A sign from the gods that we would once again be going to the WS. Only baseball is a cruel game. As former commissioner Bart Giamatti once said, "It's a game designed to break your heart." 1 Adam Wainwright curveball later and mine and 55,000+ other hearts at Shea Stadium were broken that night. Ok, we'll get'em next year. This team is no one-hit wonder. 2007. 7 game lead with 17 to play. No one has ever blown a lead like that. But again...it's a game designed to break your heart. 2008. Not quite the same September lead, but a lead nonetheless. Once again gone. Need a win the last day of the season. The last regular season game to be played at Shea Stadium. No way this building closes like this. No way we shut the doors on our beloved Shea (don't you call it a dump, only those of us who bleed orange and blue have earned the right to call it a dump, and only in the most loving way possible) with a loss. We can't possibly have our hearts broken for a 3rd year in a row, right? The game's not that cruel, right Bart? Then 6 years of futility. 6 years of Mets fans wishing for a September collapse because at least it meant we had a shot at something. The phrase "meaningful games" in September becomes a running joke, only it's not so funny. And each year our beautiful new park sees fewer and fewer people. But we are still there. The ones who know what Mike Bordick and Bubba Trammell did in back to back Mets games. The ones who know the players the Mets got when they traded away the Franchise. The ones who know why the sound of a cowbell puts a smile on so many faces. The ones who know names like Nino Espinosa, and Bruce Boisclair, and Gil Flores. And then one glorious night, the 2013 All-Star Game, we take center stage. And the man who can lead us back to the promised land, the Dark Knight, takes his place on the mound. And while we know 2013 isn't quite our time yet, it soon will be. Wait, Bart, did you say something? No, baseball isn't THAT cruel. Harvey can't be hurt. He's Gotham's Dark Knight. And so 2014 is over before it even starts and it becomes much like 2013, and 2012, and 2011, and on and on. We are a joke. A laughingstock. Lovable losers? Sorry, the Cubs have laid claim to that title. We're just losers. But spring is a season of rebirth, a time when every baseball fan thinks, "This is the year for my team." 11 wins in a row in April? Maybe this year is different. Maybe it's not. Why is it taking Wright so long to come back from a hamstring injury? What? He's got spinal what? Who are we batting clean-up? John Mayberry Jr? Didn't we sign him to be a 4th OF and pinch hitter. What's his average? WHAT??????? A post softball game meal at Croxsley's. Hey guys, Mets made a deal. Wow, Carlos Gomez! That's not a bad trade. Sorry to see Wheeler go, and Flores. Wait, is Flores crying? No, why would you have a guy who's crying out in the field. Holy s#$t, he is crying! The trade's off? Are you kidding me??? Just when you think this franchise can't become anymore of a joke, it does. Another lost season. Maybe we'll play .500 ball. What's that you say? They made a few trades? Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard. Nice supporting pieces, but not the kind of guys to put us over the top. No, we need someone big, and it seems like the New York Mets don't pull off big trades anymore. But they pull off perhaps the most important trade in franchise history. Cespedes and the pitching staff put the team on their collective backs, and we have perhaps the most amazing 2 months of regular season games in our history. And suddenly what seemed improbable becomes possible. 2015 NL East Champs!! Bring on the Dodgers. 2 possible Cy Young Award winners? We don't care. We'll beat them both. Have a game stolen from us by a dirty slide and an even worse call by the umps? So what. ‪#‎WinforReuben‬. Those lovable losers, the Cubs? Guess what? They stand between us and the WS. No problem. See, not only do we have of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, we have a 2nd baseman named Daniel Murphy? Murphy? Yeah, I've heard of him. Decent player. Gets a fair amount of hits. Makes contact. Plays with a lot of heart. Makes some bonehead plays from time to time. Isn't he the one who missed Opening Day to be at his son's birth? Not much of a power hitter though is he? But remember, baseball is a cruel game. Only this time, it's not we Mets fans saying that. For 9 glorious games so far, Murphy has become an answer to a trivia question. The kind of player that someday my boys will say to their kids, "I remember what Murphy did in the 2015 playoffs" which brings us to where we are now....4 wins away from what would be one of the sweetest World Series victories ever. It's okay Mets fans. Dare to dream. ‪#‎LGM‬

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Playoffs, here we come!!!!

So  I blogged exactly once this season.  If you want to get technical, I actually never blogged this season since my one post came before the season started.  I ended that post like this:

If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet the over in a heartbeat on an 83 win season.  I think the Mets will win 88 games this year and earn a wild card, and wouldn't be surprised if they hit that magic number of 90.  It's time to believe again!


Turns out I was a pretty good prognosticator when it came to wins, but way off on the wild card thing.  In fact, 88 wins wasn't nearly enough to get a wild card this year as the Pirates and Cubs won 98 and 97 games respectively. So Mets fans should be extremely grateful that the Nationals had such an underwhelming year.

Getting into specifics of my preseason predictions, I was much more on target with how I thought our starting pitching would fare.  I was looking for 60 wins from the top 5 starters based on game starts, and I had predicted 12 wins for Colon, 12 for de Grom, 15 for Harvey, 11 for Niese, and 10 for Gee.  In the end, our top 5 starters ended up being Colon (31 GS, 14 wins), de Grom (30 GS, 14 wins), Harvey (29 GS, 13 wins), Niese (29 GS, 9 wins), and Syndergaard (24 GS, 9 wins), who combined for 59 wins.

On the offensive side of the ball, I had said we won 79 games with only one key player, Duda, having a career year, and 2 key players, Wright and Granderson, having sub-par years.  Well if you look at this year's lineup, no one had a career year (except maybe Flores, but then again, he never really played a full season, so it's hard to say 2015 was a career year for him).  Granderson had a very good year, but not a career year.  Duda had decent numbers, but not like last year.  I thought Cuddyer would be an upgrade in the lineup, and he wasn't.  Given another year of maturity and experience, I looked for Lagares to put up better numbers.  He didn't.  With d'Arnaud being out for large chunks of time, we once again didn't get much from our catchers.  And given how little he played, I'm not sure it's even fair to rate the Captain's season, but needless to say, third base didn't produce much for us this year.  So for much of 2015, our offense was quite offensive, hitting it's nadir when Campbell and Mayberry, Jr batted 3rd and 4th (or 4th and 5th, I can't recall) while both sporting sub-.200 averages.  But then July 31st rolled around, and the Mets made a trade deadline move, after NOT making a deal a few days earlier, that all future Mets trade deadline moves will be compared to, the move that transformed the team from a .500 team treading water to the eventual NL East champs.  We got Cespedes, and our anemic offense became a thing of the past.  The regulars started hitting, the other pieces we picked up (Johnson, Uribe) contributed big hits, and Conforto showed he belongs in the big leagues.  Yes, the lineup did disappear again the last week of the season, and that has to be a major concern heading into the NLDS, but for most of August and September, there were few lineups that could match what the Mets were doing on a daily basis.  

I was in Vegas in mid-August and was going to place a bet on the Mets winning the World Series, but my wife said, "Just enjoy the ride."  Instead, I placed bets on the Giants and Jets winning the Super Bowl.  In the spirit of "enjoying the ride", I'm not going to make a playoff prediction.  I will say this.  The pitching has been there all year.  There's no reason to believe it won't show up in the playoffs.  If the Mets are going to go anywhere, they'll need their August to mid-September offense to show up as well.

Saturday, April 4, 2015

83 Wins? I'm taking the over!!!!!

With Opening Day so close you can almost smell the ballpark hot dogs, it's time to look at the Mets chances this season.  For fans of all teams, hope always springs eternal this time of the year, even more so this year for Mets fans.  After years of frustration and disappointment, we are primed to re-join the ranks of the baseball elite.  It seems like oddsmakers have them pinned for 83 wins this season.  I know a lot of statistical analysis goes into people like Baseball Prospectus creating those projected win totals, but I'm just not buying that we are only 4 wins better than last year. I think there's really two simple reasons why the Mets will improve by more than 4 wins this season.

We will get more wins out of our starting pitching. Last year, nine pitchers started a game for us and got us 57 wins.  Here was the breakdown (I've only counted wins earned as a starting pitcher):

Pitcher                       GS                      W      
Colon                          31                       15
Wheeler                      32                       11
Niese                           30                        9
de Grom                      22                        9
Gee                              22                        7
Dice K                         9                          2
Montero                       8                          1
Mejia                           7                          3
Torres                          1                          0

The Top 5 remains almost the same, with Harvey slotting in for Wheeler.  Do I think Colon wins 15 again this year?  No, I don't. But I don't think 12 is out of the question, and if at his age he's "lost it", I think the Mets will be quick to dump him and bring up either Matz or Syndergaard, or promote Montero from the bullpen. Colon's spring numbers had me a little concerned (0-3, 7.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), until I looked back at the previous 2 years. Apparently Bartolo knows these games don't count.  In 2013, he was 1-2/6.30 ERA/1.60 WHIP.  In 2014 it was 1-1/5.28/1.24.  My feeling is that as a very veteran pitcher, Colon knows he only has so many bullets in the barrel and doesn't want to waste any during the spring.

I'm also fairly confident that Harvey wins more games in 2015 than Wheeler did in 2014.  For one, Harvey is a better pitcher.  If you read my pre-Opening Day post last year, I said one of the keys to the Mets success would be for Wheeler to take that huge step up the way Harvey did in 2013.  Sure, Wheeler pitched great in the 2nd half of the season, but did you ever get the feeling his starts were "must see" events?  No one started saying, "It's Wheeler Day".  Personally, I was more excited for de Grom starts.  I don't think it's out of the question for Harvey to win 15 games, even with his soft innings cap.  Strasburg won 15 his first full season back from TJ surgery, and as anyone who was at their match-up at Citi in 2013 knows, "Harvey's better!!!!!!"

Niese is like the perennially underachieving student I seem to have in class every year, the one who I know has the ability but can seem to do no better than low 80s.  Having gotten 30 starts in last year, Niese should have had more than 9 wins.  I'm willing to give him 11 this year because the talent is there for 11 or more.

de Grom has done nothing this spring (3-0, 2.08 ERA, 25 K in 26 IP, only 4 walks, 0.73 WHIP) to suggest he was a one year "flash in the pan".  With a full year ahead of him, I don't think 12 wins is unreasonable. And if Gee stays healthy (and on the team), he has the talent to win 10 games (in the 2 years he's gotten 30+ starts, he's won 13 and 12 games).

If you've done the math, that's 60 wins from our top 5 starters, as compared to 51 last year.

While I'm talking about wins from starters (for all you sabremetricians out there, I know, I know, wins is an old school stat), I decided to look at how many wins from starters the playoff teams got as I thought the 57 the Mets got was awfully low.

Team                          Wins                     Wins from starters     
Angels                          98                                68
Nats                              96                                70
Orioles                          96                                68
Dodgers                        94                                76
Tigers                           90                                 68
Cards                            90                                 64
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Royals                          89                                 61
A's                                88                                 62
Giants                           88                                 56
Pirates                          88                                 55

The six division winners averaged 69 wins from the starters, while the four wild card teams averaged 58.5.  If the Mets can get 60 from their starters, they'll be in a good position to claim a wild card spot.

Another thing I was curious about was what percent of Mets wins were earned by the starters.  The starters accounted for 72.2% of their wins.  For the six division winners combined, it worked out to 73.4% (with the Dodgers being the highest at 80.9% and the Angels being the lowest at 69.4%). For the four wild card teams, it was 66.3% (with a high of 70.5% for the A's and a low of 62.5% for the Pirates).  So as one would expect, the very good teams have their starters earn a high percentage of their teams' wins.  In that aspect, the Mets were right where they needed to be. (For comparisons sake, the three worst teams in baseball, the D'Backs, Rockies, and Rangers only had their starters get 65.5% of their wins).

Our offense will be better. This reason is a lot simpler and requires me to throw out far less stats.  The Mets won 79 games last year with one player (Duda) having a career year, and 2 players (Wright and Granderson) having very sub-par years (okay, maybe Grandy's was only sub-par, but David's was definitely very sub-par). I know Murphy was an All-Star, but his numbers were pretty much in line with what you'd expect from him, and the fact he was chosen as our All-Star really speaks to a lack of any other choice.  We got no production from the catching position prior to d'Arnaud's recall from Vegas.  We got nothing from SS for most of the year.  Flores over the course of a full year will be a tremendous upgrade from Tejada.  In about 100 fewer ABs (259 vs. 355), Flores only had 5 fewer RBI than Tejada (34 vs. 29). Plus, Tejada struck out a ton ( 73 K), while Flores only had 31 (which over 600 ABs only projects to 72 Ks).  Lagares looks like he will improve on last year's numbers, as you hope any young player will do, and Cuddyer is an upgrade to the lineup as well. I think just from an offensive point of view, we are four games better than last year.

Certainly the schedule does the Mets no favors, with them having to play the AL East this year, and of course 18 games against the Nats. But while the Nats have great pitching, they are showing that right now, they have some questions on the offensive side of the ball.  Scherzer, Strasburg and Company can't pitch shutouts every night.  But they do also get to play two of the (projected) weakest teams, the Phils and Braves, 18 times apiece as well.

Finally, I think you can't underestimate the impact of Harvey's return.  I know he only pitches every fifth game, but he just seems like a guy who HATES to lose.  Some players just by their presence make the rest of the team better.  I believe Harvey is one of those guys.  And though the spotlight shines bright on everyone who plays in NYC, in Harvey you have someone who is willing to stand in that spotlight and perhaps shield some of his teammates from it.

If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet the over in a heartbeat on an 83 win season.  I think the Mets will win 88 games this year and earn a wild card, and wouldn't be surprised if they hit that magic number of 90.  It's time to believe again!

Monday, January 12, 2015

Queens Baseball Convention

Let me start with a little self promotion, something I am horrible at, probably because I just do this blog as a hobby.  If you like what you read here, please share it with fellow Mets fans.  You can also follow me on Twitter @TomVereline and this way you'll always know when I update the blog.

So I'm typing this as I sit in my green mezzanine seats from Shea Stadium, counting the days until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training.  Believe it or not, that happens in little over a month. After taking off from being a dad on Saturday so I could attend the Queens Baseball Convention, it was back to full-time parenthood on Sunday, with an away basketball game for my younger son followed by a home game (and kitchen duty) for my older son, so I couldn't find the time to share my thoughts on the QBC until now.

I first want to thank two of the primary organizers of the QBC, Shannon and Keith, for allowing me to be a small part of the day's festivities.  Back in November, as I was putting some Mets baseball cards into a binder, I realized that I have this great collection of Mets baseball cards and no one ever gets to see it.  So I took a chance and sent the guys an email asking if I could bring my cards to the QBC to share with my fellow Mets fans.  Not knowing me from a hole in the wall, I wasn't sure what kind of response I'd get back from them, but I got a pretty quick one and they were more than open to the idea.  I can only imagine the amount of hard work they and all the organizers put into the day, but it was well worth it.  If you are a Mets fan, you should definitely plan to be at QBC2016.  I also have to thank one of the volunteers (sorry I forgot his name) who was taking pictures at the Wally Backman autograph session and texting/emailing them to people.

Now, if you are looking for a comprehensive review of what took place at the QBC, guess what? I can't give it to you!  My original plan was to display my cards for awhile, then to pack up shop and take in a few of the panels that were scheduled.  But that plan never came to fruition as I kept my cards on display the entire time. Was I upset that I missed the Retired Numbers Panel, or the Best Baseball Movie panel, or hearing Mookie or Wally speak? Not really because I got to spend the day meeting tons of fellow Mets fans and talking Mets baseball and baseball cards with them.

I got to meet Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) who writes for MetsBlog.com and works for mlb.com.  I talked baseball cards with Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick), who was an SNY Kids Clubhouse correspondent and  was kind enough to give me a Zack Wheeler and a Mike Piazza card he pulled out of a box he bought at the QBC.  I learned a ton from @CollectTheMets whose collection of Mets cards DWARFS mine and is far more organized than I could ever hope to be.  On line waiting for Wally's autograph, I relived the agony of the last game at Shea with some fellow fans, one of whom has orange seats from Shea and blue seats from Veterans Stadium in his backyard (home and away, which I thought was a great idea).  I spent time talking to a guy at the bar (Scotty?) who was wearing a soccer jersey and watching a game on his phone.  He was interested to get my take on the Sell the Club billboard that is going up (There are way better ways to spend your money Mets fans, don't waste it on a stupid billboard that won't change anything!!!).  I debated Keith Hernandez's Hall of Fame worthiness with another fan (My feeling is that if Ozzie Smith, who was a great defensive player, 13 Gold Gloves, and a mediocre offensive player is in, than Keith, who was a great defensive player, 11 Gold Gloves, and a VERY GOOD (and clutch) offensive player (batting title, 1979 co-MVP) should be in as well), who wasn't quite willing to buy my argument.

I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.  For someone who lives and bleeds Mets baseball, this was the perfect shot of adrenaline I needed to carry me through the next few weeks until pitchers and catchers report.  So while I don't think my cards will be back next year, I know I certainly will be!