Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Joel Sherman's article in the NY Post, "The Mets Can Take Ownership of NY from the Yanks - Right Now" http://nypost.com/2014/07/14/the-mets-can-take-ownership-of-ny-from-the-yanks-right-now/ brings to mind a letter to the editor I wrote that was published in Beckett Baseball, a monthly magazine for baseball card collectors, back in May 2005.  My letter was in response to an article a previous month, an article whose author, like Sherman in his article today, seems to have forgotten that the Mets did in fact once own the city.  Here's my letter, which Beckett headlined with "There's An "NY" On Mets' Caps, Too"

I enjoyed reading your article about the Mets in the March issue of Beckett Baseball. However, as a lifelong Mets fan, I have to take umbrage with the statements, "That's not to say the Mets are ready to overtake the Yankees as the team in New York. Quite frankly, that will never happen" and "In good times and bad, the Yankees own this town." Apparently writer Mike McAllister wasn't in NYC in the mid- and late 1980s when this was the Mets' town.  A quick look at attendance records shows that from 1984-1992, the Mets outdrew the Yankees each of those years, and over that span the Mets drew almost four million more fans to Queens than the Yankees did to the Bronx.  They also did what the Yankees have done for the past 10 years - own the backpages of NYC's papers.  While it's true they will never be able to match the history of the Yankees (what team can?), the fact is the Mets have shown in the past that NYC can be their town.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Mid-season assessment

Of course, the All-Star Game break isn't really the mid-season break.  Having played their 95th game today, the Mets passed that point about two weeks ago.  Still, now's as good a time as any to look back at my post (the one entitled "Baseball's back and so am I") where I listed 10 things that had to go right in order for the Mets to reach Sandy Alderson's goal of 90 wins.  At 45-50, the Mets have their work count out for them.  They'd have to go 45-22 the remainder of the way, which is a .672 winning percentage.  How good is a .672 winning percentage?  Do that over a full season and you win 109 games.  Even hitting my preseason prediction of 82 will be tough, although if this most recent homestand is an indication of how they'll do the rest of the way, then maybe they do have a shot at both 82 and 90 wins.

1. Stay healthy.  While they haven't been decimated with injuries like the Rangers have, they've had their fair share.  Juan Lagares, one of their best hitters, has had 2 separate stints on the DL.  Dillon Gee, arguably their best pitcher, missed nearly 2 months.  Eric Young had a stint on the DL, and Jon Niese currently resides there.  David Wright avoided the DL with rest, but missed a week of games, although in his case, the time off seems to have done him good.

2.  Bartolo Colon  I said we needed 30-34 starts from him and at least 14 wins.  So far he's on pace for both of them.  He's been very good occasionally, adequate most of the time, and he's eating up innings.  I think how the Mets do on their first post-ASG road trip will determine if he's still here after the trading deadline.

3.  Ike Davis   Wow, did I blow this one big time.  I basically said that Ike had to be the Ike from the 2nd half of 2012.  I really thought he would claim the 1B job in April since neither he nor Lucas Duda were able to claim it during spring training.  However, after a somewhat slow start, Duda is doing what I thought Ike needed to do for us to win 90 games.  He's on pace for about 80-85 RBI.  Throw in a good hot streak, and maybe he'll get to 90.

4.  Curtis Granderson  I said Granderson needs to be Granderson.  Throw out that horrendous April, and he's been what you'd expect from him, although I'm surprised at how weak his arm is.  I guess playing in that small RF at Yankee Stadium, that never got exposed. 

5.  Zach Wheeler   Wheeler has not made that giant leap forward this year like Matt Harvey did last year.  He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he hasn't even come close to dominating the way Harvey did last year.  I think if he remains part of the Mets long term plans, he'll be a really dependable #3 starter.

6.  Travis d'Arnaud  Three weeks ago, this is another one of the 10 things that had absolutely no chance of being accurate, and given that there are only 67 games left, d'Arnaud has some work to do if he's going to hit some of the goals I thought he'd need to hit for us to win 90 games.  I was hoping for .275, 10HR, 20+ 2B, and 60RBI.  He's got a shot at the HR and 2B, but unless he REALLY catches fire, I doubt he'll get his average up to .275 or come anywhere near 60RBI.  But....since his stint in Las Vegas, he has shown he belongs here.

7.  Dillon Gee   Gee has done what I said he needed to do, but unfortunately missed too much time with an injury.  I'd like to say if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd at least be a .500 team now, but the truth is, our record isn't 45-50 due to starting pitching.  Chalk that up to our lack of clutch hitting.

8.  Innings from our #5 starter.  I'm not sure who the Mets consider their #5 starter, Jacob de Grom or Dice-K, but they've both given them innings.  de Grom has pitched 6+ innings in 8 of his 12 starts, and Dice-K in 5 of his 8 (I'm not counting the one start he left after 1 inning due to a stomach bug).

9.  A rookie pitcher needs to step up and contribute   I, along with nearly every other Mets fan, was hoping that rookie would be Noah Syndergaard.  It hasn't quite worked out that way. But Jacob de Grom has come up and pitched much better than his record of 3-5 would indicate.

10.  David Wright   My comment back in March was that we didn't sign David for 8 years to be an 80RBI guy.  Well, he's on pace for about 80-85 RBI, and only 14 HR.  If he can get hot, there's no doubt he can get his average up over .300 (.285 at the ASG break), but I think once again he'll fall short of 90 RBI.

Biggest surprises: Bobby Abreu (who saw that coming), Eric Campbell, Jacob de Grom, Jenrry Mejia as a closer

Biggest disappointments: Chris Young, Travis d'Arnaud before his demotion, everyone with the bases loaded