Sunday, June 1, 2014

Buddy Carlyle, the 1000th player in Mets history...or maybe not.

So on Opening Day 2012, I noticed in the Mets yearbook that it said 918 players had appeared in at least 1 game for the Mets. Each player was listed alphabetically, and a total was given for each letter of the alphabet. There had been 40 A names, 88 B and so on. There were no Q names yet as Omar Quintanilla would make his debut later in 2012.  It got me wondering as to who their 1000th player would be and when he would play, so I started keeping track of guys making their Mets debuts just for fun.

When the 2013 yearbook came out, they didn't list a grand total, but still had a number after each letter of the alphabet. I added those numbers up to double-check my list. I had it at 941 as 23 players (including notables like Matt Harvey and such legends as Jack Egbert, Justin Hampson, and Fred Lewis) made their debut in 2012, but the yearbook total was 961, so I adjusted accordingly, figuring the 918 a year earlier was a typo (and if you add up the 2012 totals for each letter, it came to 938).

At the start of this season according to my count, which I double-checked against the numbers in the 2014 yearbook, the number was at 989.  Once again, no grand total was given, but I added up the letter totals 3 or 4 times and kept getting 989. 28 players had made their Mets debut in 2013, from "faces of the future" Zack Wheeler and Travis d'Arnaud to the forgettable Sean Henn and Aaron Laffey.

With 11 more to go, it was clear 2014 would be the year we'd reach the historic milestone. Would #1000 be one of our great prospects like Rafael Montero, Jacob de Grom, or Noah Syndergaard, or another "all but forgotten except to the most die-hard of fans" player like Gary Rajsich (1982-1983), Jorge Fabregas (1998), and Mario Diaz (1990), who should not be confused with Victor Diaz (2004-2006) or Carlos Diaz (1982-1983)?  10 more players had made their Mets debut this season prior to yesterday's game.  We were getting close! However, unless someone got hurt or we made a trade, it looked like we'd be stuck at 999 for awhile, which turned out to be de Grom, or so I thought.

But then Friday night's 14-inning marathon depleted our bullpen, and up came journeyman pitcher Buddy Carlyle, who last appeared in the majors in 2011, for Saturday's game. Might he be the one? With de Grom cruising early, it looked like we'd have no need for the bullpen. Too bad since I was down in Philly for the game as part of the raucous The 7 Line outing and it would be cool to witness "history". Then the Phillies tied it up and the parade of relievers started: Edgin, Dice K, Rice, Familia. They had all pitched the night before. Wasn't Carlyle brought up to give these guys a break? Why wasn't Terry Collins bringing him in?

Then the bottom of the 11th arrives and who jogs in from the Mets bullpen? Buddy Carlyle, the 1000th player in Mets history!!!! I was so excited. I sent out tweets, tagging the Mets, SNY TV, and Kevin Burkhardt in them. When he managed to pitch 3 innings in relief and get the win, I didn't care that the historic #1000 wasn't someone like Syndergaard. Buddy had earned the honor! Then I waited for the Mets to tweet about this historic milestone. It never came. How could that be? In a sport that like no other is all about stats, surely this couldn't have gone unnoticed. After all, 30 seconds after his hit on a 3-0 count Friday night, SNY was telling us it was only Duda's 2nd hit ever on a 3-0 count. Maybe Howie or Josh mentioned it on the radio. Maybe my tweet caused KB to mention it on the PIX11 broadcast. But as far as I knew, in the words of Yukon Corneilus,"Nothing!" Nothing in the papers today. Nothing at mets.com.

Had I been wrong? That couldn't be. I had been so careful, checking and re-checking my numbers against what was published in the Mets yearbooks. So I decided to email Anthony DiComo, who writes most of the articles at mets.com, to let him know of the event that I was pretty sure had taken place and the rest of the world had missed. I got a pretty quick reply from Anthony. Intrigued by what I had written, he had done some quick research and according to the Mets media guide, the count at the start of the year was 988, making Buddy #999.  I shared with him the numbers for each letter of the alphabet from the 2014 yearbook to show him why we began the year with 989, but in doing so discovered something I hadn't noticed in 2+ years.  It had said we had 39 O players in the 2012 Yearbook but then Garret Olson played for us in 2012, so it's been 40 in the 2013 and 2014 yearbooks. I looked at the list, which included the likes of Charlie O'Brien, Jesse Orosco, and John Olerud. It seemed awfully short. "That can't be 40 names," I thought. Sure enough, it was only 20. And just like that, my moment of glory was gone, snatched away like the kid who thinks he has a date to the prom only to find out she's decided to go with someone else. Buddy as it turns out ended up being #979. The 1-player discrepancy between the number I thought it should be (1000-20 less O players) and what Anthony had discovered lay in the letter V. After seeing the error with the O players, I had counted all the names (not easy on my 44 year old eyes as I'm not yet ready to admit I need glasses!!!!) and compared the total number listed. The yearbook said we had 21 V players, but there were only 20 names listed. Anthony confirmed for me through the Mets PR department that our total now stands at 979.

So it looks like we'll have to wait awhile longer for the 1000th player in Mets history. But that's okay. If nothing else, we Mets fans are a patient bunch :-)

Free Agent Follies

With the first month of the season almost over, it’s become clear that some Mets fans, based on comments I’ve read over at Mets.com, believe Curtis Granderson to be the second coming of Jason Bay. Some think he’s even worse.  I simply just don’t understand that mentality.  Maybe it’s born out of the fact that we’ve had remarkably few highlights in our 50+ years of existence and way too many lowlights.  I see the same attitude among Jets fans.  In emergency preparedness, the saying is, “Plan for the worst, hope for the best” but when it comes to being a Mets fan, it seems to be, “Plan for the worst, expect nothing less”.  Who knows, perhaps the Granderson signing will turn out to be a horrible one for the Mets, but as I’ve said before, lets wait and see before we make a judgment on that.  I’m certainly not going to equate Curtis Granderson to Jason Bay 25 games into his Mets career.
However, it did get me to thinking that the Mets have never really had great success with free agent signings, at least that is the perception.  So I decided to look back over the past 20 years at some of the free agents we’ve signed, and since I’m a teacher, give each of those signings a grade.  I only operated with two rules.  One, they had to be a legitimate free agent signing, somebody we snagged away from another team, so someone like Mike Piazza, who we traded for and then re-signed when he became a free agent didn’t count. Two, they had to be signed to major league deals, leaving out guys like R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd who we signed to minor league deals.  Lastly, one note on statistics.  The phrase “slash line” has become popular in the past few years.  For those of you not familiar with it, a slash line is simply a player’s batting average, followed by his on-base percentage, and lastly his slugging percentage.  Those 3 numbers are usually written like this: .297/.346/.498, hence the term “slash line”.  The one stat I simply hate is OPS, which is on base + slugging.  Why do I hate it?  Because those two stats are usually given separately, so OPS is just a number for those too lazy to do a little math in their heads.  It’s probably a teacher thing.  Anyway, without further ado…

Eddie Murray Career .287/.359/.476
Murray was signed to a 4-year contract before the 1992 season.  He would play only 2 years for the Mets, and given that he was near the end of what would turn out to be a HOF career, did pretty well.  In 1992 he went .261/.336/.423 with 16HR and 93RBI.  In 1993 he did even better, going .285/.325/.467 with 27HR and 100RBI.  The problem with Murray is that he was part of the ’92 team that lost 90 games and was famously dubbed by columnist/author Bob Klapisch, “The Worst Team Money Could Buy”.  Looking at the numbers he put up in 1992, you certainly can’t blame Murray for the 90 losses, and if you told me Duda would have the same season this year, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
Grade B+


Bobby Bonilla Career .279/.358/.472
Bonilla probably best symbolized the failure of that ’92 team simply because he was THE big free agent signing that year.  I remember watching ESPN the night when Sportscenter said, “According to sources, Bobby Bonilla will sign with the Mets” (or something to that effect) and thinking, “YES, we got him!”  I guess we were all hoping that Bonilla was the Scottie Pippen to Barry Bonds’ Michael Jordan and he would prove to be a superstar of his own right away from Bonds. That’s probably a bad analogy because in looking back, other than division titles, those Bucs of the early 90s never won anything.  And in the end, Bonilla never lived up to the contract he signed.  However, his numbers weren’t as terrible as you’d think.  Time, and a lack of overall success for the team, has a funny way of distorting the truth.
1992 19HR, 70RBI, .249/.348/.432
1993 34HR, 87RBI, .265/.352/.522
1994 20HR, 67RBI, .290/.374/.504
The four years prior to joining the Mets, he averaged 24.5HR and 101RBI, which might make you wonder why I would say his overall numbers weren’t so terrible.  But consider this.  In those 4 years he played 159, 163,160, and 157 games.  In the 3 years with the Mets he played 128, 139, and 108 games.  If he had gotten 600 ABs in those 3 years, his RBI numbers extrapolate out to 96, 104, and 100.
Before looking back at the stats, I never would have imagined saying this, but I have to give Bonilla a grade of B.

Robin Ventura .267/.362/.444
Ventura was signed to a 5-year deal before the 1999 season, and after Year 1 it looked like a tremendous signing.  In ’99 he hit 32 HR and had 120 RBI (which I think at the time was a team record) with a .301/.379/.529 slash line.  In the postseason, our first since 1988, he famously hit the Grand Slam Single to win Game 5 of the LCS vs. the Braves.  He, along with Rey Ordonez, Edgardo Alfonzo, and John Olerud made the cover of Sports Illustrated with the headline, “The Best Infield Ever?” Unfortunately, it was all downhill after that first season.  In 2000 and 2001, his production dropped significantly in all categories (24 HR, 84 RBI, .232/.338/.439 and 21 HR, 61 RBI, .237/.359/.419) and he was traded to the Yankees after the 2001 season.  Helping us get to our first back-to-back postseasons ever earns him some bonus points, but you can’t ignore those Year 2 and 3 numbers when assigning a grade.
Grade C+

Todd Zeile .265/.346/.423
Zeile was signed to a 3-year deal after the ’99 season to replace John Olerud, who had signed with the Mariners.  Based on his career numbers, we got pretty much what you’d expect from him.  He played 2 years for us and in 2000 hit 22 HR, 79 RBI, .268/.356/.467 and in 2001, 10 HR, 62 RBI, .266/.359/.373.  He was also quite durable, playing in 153 and 151 games, and while he wasn’t nearly as good defensively as Olerud, I don’t remember him being a liability.  He’s probably best remembered for his near-HR in Game 1 of the World Series vs. the Yankees.  With Timo Perez on 1st, he launched a deep fly ball that many, including Timo, thought was a HR.  Unfortunately, it hit off the very top of the wall, and a well-executed relay nailed Timo, who wasn’t running at full speed at first because he thought it was a HR, at the plate.  Those 2 runs would prove to be crucial when He Who Shall Not be Named blew the game in the 9th and we eventually lost in extra innings.  The great thing is, til this day, every Mets fan I know, myself included, believe had we won Game 1, we would’ve won that WS.
Given that Zeile pretty much delivered what you’d expect from him, I’d have to give him a B+.

Tom Glavine career ERA 3.54
Glavine was signed to a 5-year deal before the 2003 season.  While he never enjoyed the level of success he had with the Braves, he did go 61-56 over his 5 years and averaged almost 33 starts a year.  Take away his disastrous first year, 9-14 4.52 ERA and his record of 52-42 isn’t all that bad.  However, his ERA all 5 years (4.52, 3.60, 3.53, 3.82, 4.45) was over his career figure.  His best year was the only year the Mets reached the playoffs, 2006, when he went 15-7.  In the postseason he went 2-1 in 3 games with an ERA of 1.59.  He will be best (or worst) remembered for his last game as a Met.  In the final game of the 2007 season, after an historic September collapse where they blew a 7 game lead with 17 to play, the Mets needed to beat the Marlins to force a 3-team (Padres, Rockies) playoff for the wild card.  In hindsight, the Mets may have been better off having me pitch the game.  Glavine lasted only 1/3 of an inning and gave up 7 runs.  Mets fans have never forgiven him.
Grade C 

Pedro Martinez  2.93 ERA
Like Ventura, Pedro’s grade was looking pretty good after Year 1 of his 4-year deal.  He was 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA.  He started 31 games, and struck out 208 in 217 innings.  After the Art Howe years, he helped to re-energize the team and the fan base, and his starts brought an electricity back to Shea that had been missing for several years.  Alas, he would make only 48 more starts for the Mets over the next 3 years, including zero during the 2006 postseason, as injuries took their toll.    He wound up going 32-23.  In 2006 he was 9-8 with a 4.48 ERA and in 2008 he was 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA, some pretty ugly numbers for a pitcher of his caliber.  2008 saw another September swoon by the Mets which Pedro certainly contributed to, going 0-3 during that final month.  However, he was one of the few bright spots during the 2007 collapse.  All 5 of his starts that year came in September and he went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 32 in 28 innings.  It would’ve been interesting to see what he would’ve done in that postseason had we made it there.
My favorite Pedro memory involves a game he didn’t even pitch in.  In June 2006, my buddy Joe and I went to see the Mets play in Boston (how not to do a road trip to Boston: leave LI around 2PM, get to Boston just in time for the game, watch the game, drive right back to LI).  When they showed Pedro on the scoreboard, he got a tremendous ovation.  A Sox fan in front of us turned to Joe and I and said, “I hope we play you guys in the WS and Petey pitches a no-hitter in Game 1 and we win the next 4.”
32-23 wasn’t what we were expecting when we signed Petey, but his signing did help legitimize the team again and showed that we were willing to spend money.  Grade C+

Carlos Beltran .283/.358/.497
Beltran was signed to a 7-year deal before the 2005 season.  In a baseball preview section of one of the newspapers that spring, I remember reading one columnist writing something to the effect that the numbers Beltran would produce during his Mets career would insure he’d go into the HOF as a Met.  Let’s look at his numbers for all 7 years.
2005      151 games   16 HR, 78 RBI     .266/.330/.414       17 SB
2006      140 games   41 HR, 116 RBI    .275/.388/.594     18 SB
2007      144 games   33 HR, 112 RBI    .276/.353/.525      23 SB
2008      161 games    27 HR, 112 RBI    .284/.376/.500    25 SB
2009      81 games    10 HR, 48 RBI      .325/.415/.500      11 SB
2010      64 games     7 HR, 27 RBI        .255/.341/.427      3 SB
2011        98 games    15 HR, 66 RBI      .289/.391/.513      3 SB (traded midyear for Zach Wheeler, was on pace for close to 100 RBI)
You could make the argument that 2006-2008 was the greatest 3-year period for an offensive player in the history of the Mets.  What made his 2006 all the more impressive is that he produced those 41 HR and 116 RBI in only 140 games.  While we all remember his 2006 postseason for the called strike 3 curveball he took against Adam Wainwright with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of the LCS, he did hit .278/.422/.556 in 10 games with 3HR and 5 RBI.  And as all was falling to pieces in September 2007 and 2008, all Beltran did was hit 8 HR, 27 RBI, .282/.328/..555 and 6 HR, 19 RBI, .344/.440/.645.  You can’t ask for much more than that.
Take away his two injury plagued years, and Beltran gets an  A+, but they have to be taken into account, but I need to give out at least one A, so his grade is A-.

Billy Wagner  2.31 ERA, 85.9% save percentage
Like Zeile, the Mets pretty much got what they expected out of Billy Wagner.  He was signed to a 4-year deal before the 2006 season.  About 2/3 of the way through the 2008 season, he hurt his elbow and returned to pitch in a couple of games in late August 2009 before being traded to Boston.  He saved 101 games in 118 chances for a save percentage of 85.6%.  He easily averaged over a K in inning from 06-08 (227 in 187.2IP) and his ERA those 3 years was 2.24, 2.63, and 2.30.  Based on his regular season numbers (and going 5 for 6 on saves in Sept 2007), I’d be willing to give out my second A , but like a student who does well on the multiple choice part of a test, Billy didn’t fare so well during the written portion, aka the postseason.  In 2006, he appeared in 6 games, going 0-1, converting all 3 of his save opportunities.  His ERA was 9.53, he gave up 10 hits in 5.2IP and had a very ugly .370 batting average against.  Look just at his LCS numbers vs. the Cards, and things get even uglier.  A 16.87 ERA and .476 BAA.  He lost Game 2, coming into a tie game in the top of the 9th and giving up 3 runs.  In Game 6 he was brought in for the 9th to protect a 4-0 lead and gave up 2 runs.  If you had looked at his postseason numbers with the Astros, none of this would’ve surprised you.  He went to the postseason 4 times with Houston, 1997-99, 2001.  5 games, 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9.64 ERA, runs allowed in 3 of the 5 outings.  Furthermore, he appeared in 5 All-Star Games (2 as a Met), and gave up runs in 3 of the 5, and had an ASG ERA of 10.80. If memory serves me, I think he also blew a save in one of those ASG.  Needless to say, he wasn’t exactly clutch when it counted the most.
Grade B+

Francisco “Frankie” Rodriguez aka KRod   2.65 ERA, 84.5% save percentage, 1.17 WHIP
Although he only played for the Mets 3 years ago, here’s another guy who Mets fans seem to forget about what he actually did on the field and remember him more for the clubhouse incident with his father-in-law (more on that later). KRod was probably a victim of high, and most likely unrealistic, expectations.  When we signed him to a 3-year (with an option for a 4th) deal before the 2009 season, he was coming off his record-setting 62 save season, and in the 3 seasons prior to that had saved 45,47, and 40 games.  In 3 seasons with the Mets, he went 83 for 98 (84.7%) in save chances, saving 35, 25, and 23 games.  His contract called for the 4th year to vest at a ridiculously high salary if he closed a certain number of games in Year 3 of his contract (or during the first 3 years of the contract, not sure about that one), so the Mets traded him away before that 4th year could vest.  He had ERAs of 3.71, 2.20, and 3.16 and WHIPs of 1.31, 1.15, and 1.41.  He was a closer you always seemed to hold your breath with (which is pretty typical of Mets closers).
As I said, he’s best known for a clubhouse incident in which he punched his father-in-law (or the father of the mother of his child/girlfriend, it was always a bit sketchy as to what their actual relationship was) and I’ve always kiddingly said I was to blame for it.  Joe and I were at the game that night (side note: to Joe’s family, I was known as “Tom, the guy Joe goes to Mets games with”. Thankfully I’ve graduated to “Tom, godfather of Joe’s son, Owen”) and in the 8th inning (against the Rockies I believe), the Mets were in danger of blowing the game.  If ever a situation screamed for you to bring in your closer in the 8th inning, this was it.  Jerry Manuel, who was actually worse at managing the bullpen than TC is in my opinion, decided not to do that.  Whoever was brought in proceeded to blow the game and KRod never got in.  As we were leaving Citifield via the Bullpen gate, KRod was gathering his stuff up and I yelled, “KRod, you should’ve been in that game!!!”  He had to have heard me.  I was angry at Jerry, not KRod, but to this day I contend my words were echoing in his head when he went into the clubhouse, “Man, that guy was right, I should’ve been in that game”, he was upset, the father-in-law perhaps said the same thing to him (it’s never really come out what transpired) and KRod just lost his cool and hit him.  Until I hear otherwise, that’s the version of events I’m going with :-)
Grade B+

Jason Bay .266/.360/.481
One has to wonder if Bay secretly roots for Granderson to have a lousy Mets career so that he gets replaced as the poster child for bad free agent signings by the Mets.  I doubt it.  By all accounts he was a great guy in the clubhouse, and the announcers repeatedly would say if there was anyone to root for to turn things around, it was Bay.  Of course, by now his failure as a Met has become legendary.  Signed to a 4-year deal before the 2010 season, his first 3 years were so bad, the Mets bought out the 4th year of his contract so that he wouldn’t have to play for them.  His 3 year numbers look all the worse when you consider in 4 out of the 5 years before joining the Mets, he drove in 100+ runs, and 84 in the one year he didn’t reach 100.
2010    6 HR, 47 RBI      .259/.347/.402     95 games
2011      12 HR, 57 RBI     .245/.329/.374    123 games
and just when you think things can’t get any worse…
2012      8 HR, 20 RBI     .165/.237/.299     70 games
I’d give Bay an F, but his 2010 season, while not great, certainly wasn’t the worst ever, and it was cut short by a concussion he got after running into the wall (in LA I believe).  It’s that willingness to sacrifice his body on defense, and the fact that he handled himself with class, that saves him when it comes to his grade.
Grade D-

So there you go.  I’d love to hear your thoughts on my grades.  If anyone can think of any other free agent signings, I’d love to hear them as well.  I don’t remember the Mets being all that active in the early days of free agency in the mid-to -late 1970s.  And many of the Mets best players in the free agency era have either been homegrown talent (Strawberry, Doc, Wright, Alfonzo, Harvey, Niese, Hundley, Mookie, Dykstra, Backman) or acquired through trade (Hernandez, Darling, Carter, Hojo, Fernandez, Cone, Piazza, Hampton, Olerud, Delgado, McReynolds).  Maybe in the future I’ll grade the trades the Mets have made over the years.  Fregosi for Ryan anyone?

Is the glass half empty or half full? You decide.


So the Mets first road trip of the year was a success, 6-3, and they come home with a winning record of 8-7.  Extrapolate that out over the full season and you get 86 wins.  Not Sandy’s goal of 90, but I think any Mets fan would be happy with 86 wins this year.  I know I would.  The question I now ponder is, are the Mets the team that got swept by the Nats in their opening series, or are they the team that has gone 8-4 since then.? Arguments can be made for both sides.

Reasons to be happy with the Mets 8-7 record.

1.  They’ve managed to be a winning team with inconsistent starting pitching.  After getting 5 quality starts in their first 6 home games, they only got 4 out of 9 on the road trip, although to be fair Mejia pitched 5 shutout innings before being removed due to blister problem, so it really should’ve been 5 out of 9.  As SNY showed in the Arizona series, our starters have one of the highest ERAs in the NL, and yet we are a game over .500.

2.  They’ve managed to be a winning team with virtually no production from David Wright or Curtis Granderson.  Yes, the Captain is on an 8-game hitting streak, but it has to be the most ho-hum hitting streak ever.  Sure, the .306 average is nice during it (11 for 36) as are the 5RBI in the 8 games (5RBI in 8 games = 101 in 162), but does anyone think we are 8-7 because of David?  Meanwhile, Granderson managed all of 4 hits while striking out 8 times during our 6-3 road trip.

3.  Eric Young is doing what leadoff hitters are supposed to do.  During the road trip, he was 12 for 36 (.333), with 12 runs scored, 9 SB, and 3 RBI.

4. They beat up on a weaker opponent. That’s what good teams do.  At the very least, they beat up on weaker opponents and hold their own against the other good teams.  Last year’s team didn’t do this at all.  They played 65 games against 5 teams with a worse record then they had (Phils, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Twins) and 2 teams with the same record (Brewers, Rockies).  Their record in those 65 games was 33-32.  To make matters worse, they won only 8 of 19 games they played against the weakest team they faced last year, the Marlins (they never faced the Astros last year, the team with the worst record in baseball). Hopefully, their sweep of the so far woeful Diamondbacks, who to quote a tweet by Kevin Burkhardt yesterday, “…are a train wreck” is a sign of things to come this year.

Reasons to be concerned in spite of their winning record.

1.  Their starting pitching is inconsistent. The starters’ ERA on the road trip was 4.39.  Granted, much of that can be attributed to the licking the Angels put on Colon (9ER in 5IP,and we shall never speak of that again), but a 4.39 ERA for starters is not a formula for long-term success.  Leaving out the Mejia start in Arizona, which as I said earlier was essentially a quality start, the Mets managed only 1 win in the 4 non-quality starts on the trip (Mejia’s 5IP/4ER vs the Braves).  This team isn’t going to score a ton of runs and can’t survive not getting strong pitching from their starters game in and game out.  The offense can’t carry this team.

2. We are getting virtually no production from David Wright or Curtis Granderson. Wright has a whopping total of 2XBH, his Opening Day HR and a double on the road trip.  That’s a little bit concerning.  Of course no one thinks David’s power outage will be a season-long problem, but I don’t think anyone would have guessed he’d have 2 XBH 15 games into the season.  He’s also produced a strikeout:walk ratio of 8:3 during his hitting streak.  Usually when you hear hitting streak, you think it would be 3:8, so there is cause for some concern there.  Of course, he’s gotten virtually no protection from Granderson, who had all of 1 XBH on the road trip.  I understand he was our big free agent acquisition, but at what point does TC move him out of the clean-up slot if this continues?

3.  Although the offense has started to come around, we can’t seem to put teams away.  Case in point was the Angels game Valverde blew in the 9th that we won in the 13th.  As much as I love Gary and Ron, I never once heard them mention the following in the broadcast: after scoring 2 runs to make it 6-3 in the 9th, we had bases loaded, 1 out with Murphy and Wright coming up and failed to score again.  A base hit by either of them makes it 8-3 and no one is talking about how Valverde blew that lead.  In Wednesday’s game vs. Arizona, we had 2nd and 3rd in the 4th inning with no outs and scored 1 run.  In the 6th we had the bases loaded with 1 out and scored 1 run.  That’s okay against a weak team like Arizona, but do that against the Cards, the Dodgers, the Pirates, etc and they’ll make you pay.

4.  The bullpen is still a work in progress.  It seems right now we have 3 people TC can rely on: Carlos Torres, Gonzalez Germen, and Kyle Farnsworth (who would’ve thought we’d be saying Farnsworth was someone we could count on).  Other than one dominant save against the Braves, Valverde has Mets fans, including a former teacher of mine, Mrs. Supon, equating him to Armando Benitez (sorry Mets fan, I know the mere mention of his name sends you into convulsions) and Doug Sisk. He comes into the game and we hold our collective breath. It will be interesting to see how Dice-K does in the bullpen.  He was pitching really well in Vegas, but that was as a starter.  It remains to be seen whether he can successfully transition to a reliever.

Weather permitting, I’m heading to Friday night’s game with my boys and my dad (a Yankees fan, but I still love him).  The baseline box seats they were offering for $19.64 in honor of the 50th anniversary of the opening of Shea Stadium were way down the line, so instead I opted for the $3.50 seats in the upper deck (sorry, I can’t call it the Promenade), because as you know, I’m just happy to be in the park.

Week 1 recap

6 games and 1 week in the books and what can we say so far about the Mets season?

The starting pitching has been solid, but not spectacular.  Had Niese gotten the 3rd out in the 6th inning on Sunday, we would’ve been 6 for 6 in quality starts.  Granted, I’m not the biggest fan of that stat because if you give up 3 ER in 6 innings you are pitching to a 4.50 ERA, but it does has some merit.  I think Niese gave us more than any of us expected Sunday, and on a very tough night to pitch, Mejia showed us why, at least for 1 start, he deserves to be in the rotation.
It is a tale of two cities in the bullpen. On the one hand you have Valverde, Farnsworth, and Germen who have combined for 11 IP, 8H, 3 BB, 14K, and only 2 ER.  On the other hand you have Torres, Rice, Familia, and Lannan who have combined for 5.1 IP, 12H, 6 BB, 6K and 10 ER.  OUCH!!!! As much as Rice was a feel-good story last year, there’s a reason why he spent 11 years in the minors before making it to the big leagues.  I’d love nothing more than to see Lannan thrive in the bullpen.  He’s a LI guy and fellow Chaminade alum (Go Flyers!!!), but if those 4 continue to struggle, will the Mets take a page out of the Cardinals playbook and bring up some of their young starting pitching and use them in the bullpen?
We are hitting HRs and not much else. Our 7 HRs have us tied for 6th in the majors, but our 33 hits overall and .178 team batting average both rank dead last, and our 61 Ks are near the top in a category you’d rather not lead the league in. To be fair, the Dodgers have struck out the most and they are 5-3 so you can strikeout a lot and still win.  Still, with 2nd and 3rd and 1 out in Sunday’s game, wouldn’t it have been nice if either Murphy or Wright had just delivered a single to score 2 runs?
TC seems willing to give Gee a little more leeway than the other pitchers.  In both his starts, you kind of felt like TC went one batter too long with Gee.  In Saturday’s game, he started the 8th inning having thrown 92 pitches.  Not an unreasonable amount, but we’ve seen that for whatever reason, Dillon seems to “lose it” rather quickly.  After giving up the leadoff double, that was probably the time to go get him.  The Opening Day start was a little trickier.  Before running into trouble in the 7th inning, he was on cruise control, having retired 15 in a row.  But with 2 outs, a man on first, and LaRoche, who had already homered off him in the game, coming up, you had to be thinking that TC was going to go to the lefty there.  Of course he didn’t and we know how the inning turned out.  Part of me wonders if TC is trying to send Dillon a message, something to the effect of “For now, you’re our ace, get yourself out of these innings the way Harvey would.”  I don’t know, maybe I’m overthinking it or reading too much into those 2 starts, but it will be interesting to see if it continues.
Can this team win on the road like last year’s team did?  This first road trip will give us some idea how that question will be answered  I have to thank the schedule makers.  Very glad that the Mets head out west to LA and Arizona the week of Spring break.  Staying up to watch the games is much easier when I don’t have to go to work the next day!!!!

“The Sky is Not Falling!!!” I repeat, “The Sky is Not Falling!!!”

Clearly yesterday’s Opening Day loss was an omen of what is to come this season, a dreadful 90 loss campaign that will have even the most loyal, diehard fans storming the gates of CitiField with torches and pitchforks demanding the Wilpons’ heads on silver platters.  If you don’t agree, then surely the news this morning that Parnell is going on the DL (and let’s face it, is probably done for the season) is the sign of the Mets apocalypse.  Repent Mets fans.  The end isn’t near, it is here, even though we’ve only just begun.  Here’s SNY’s Chris Carlin’s tweet from earlier today: Sandy wants to “change the conversation” Day 1 – bad loss, and major injury. Same conversation. Horrible luck. Brutal loss.
I get it.  In this day and age of Twitter, 24/7 sports talk, team-owned TV stations, people like Carlin, Francesa, Michael Kay have to fill their time by often making something out of nothing.  Loud Mouths on SNY isn’t much of a show if you don’t have something to argue about.  The past two years when the Mets have won on Opening Day, I’ve driven home listening to Francesa talk not about how the Mets won, but what a joke it was they claimed the game was a sell out when he could see so many empty seats on TV.  You have to push people’s buttons, and what better way to do that than point to yesterday’s loss as a portent of things to come.  I, however, would like to try and be a little more rational.
Let’s put yesterday’s loss in perspective. The Mets have the all-time best winning percentage on Opening Day.  What has that gotten us in our 50+ years of existence?  23 winning seasons, 7 playoff appearances, 4 World Series appearances, and 2 WS championships.  Clearly our success on Opening Day has never translated to overall success, so if winning on Opening Day hasn’t meant all that much to us as a franchise, why does losing yesterday have to mean all that much?  Secondly, last time I looked, 15 teams lost (or will lose as some teams open today) on Opening Day, including Boston, Atlanta, and Texas, all teams predicted to be in the playoff hunt.  The Yankees, having spent about $3 trillion this offseason, lost tonight to the Astros, a team that managed all of 51 wins last year, a team that has had 3 consecutive 100-loss seasons (move over Mets fans, we’ve got to make room on the ledge for the Yankee fans who want to join us).  In “Bull Durham”, Crash Davis told Nuke LaLoosh that he had to learn his clichés, so let’s throw a few out there.  One loss does not a season make (unless it’s Game 162 of the Red Sox 2011 season, but that’s an entirely different situation).  The baseball season isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon.  Now isn’t the time to panic (although as I type that I hear Sherriff Woody shout, ”This is the perfect time to panic!!!”).
Look, the Mets play 27 games in March/April.  If we get to April 30th and our record sits at 10-17, maybe I’ll start to sing with the chorus that began chirping the second Parnell gave up the game-tying hit yesterday.  Who knows, maybe those people heading for the lifeboats are the smart ones and I’m just the idiot playing in the band on the deck of the Titanic.  But rather than add my voice to the list of naysayers, I’d like to hope that yesterday’s loss, to quote Monty Python, was merely a flesh wound.  Regardless, I was there yesterday to witness the game, and as always, win or lose, I was just happy to be in the park.

2014 win prediction

For those of you who read my “what it will take to reach Sandy’s goal of 90 wins” post, you know I was thinking 85 wins.  However, after watching a considerable number of games this spring, I’m going to go with 82 wins for the season.  I just haven’t seen enough offense for us to consistently win close games.  I think our pitching will be our strength.  The loss of Harvey doesn’t concern me that much.  Remember, he only won 9 games last year.  Colon should more than make up for that.  And I do think we are better than we were last year.  Hopefully, if we can still be in the 2nd wild card mix in July the Mets will be buyers and not sellers and we can add a bat to the lineup, but unless our SS and 1B start producing, I don’t see us approaching 85+ wins, let alone Sandy’s goal of 90.  I hope I’m wrong.  Either way, let’s hope the rain gets out of here early tomorrow so we can….PLAY BALL!!!!

A, B, C, D, E, F, and Gee!!!!!!!

Amazing how negative Mets fans can be and the season hasn’t even started yet.  You go and read the articles at Mets.com, and the comments people post are ridiculous.  You’d think it’s September already and we’re sitting at 70-90 with 2 games to go.  This team has holes, I get it.  We haven’t answered our 1B question.  Our SS may not be an area of strength.  But can we at least be optimistic for a few weeks, through April maybe? Is that asking too much?  If we can have some optimism now, when will we have it?
Bet on Black, in Vegas at least.  After a weak Spring Training, that’s where Vic Black finds himself. Hopefully, he can “find” himself and return to the parent club.  Apparently though, Vic has a short memory. After being sent down, he said he had struggled the past 2 springs before righting himself once the regular season begins.  Now I was unable to find any Spring Training stats for him in 2012, but in 2013 his stats were 4 games, 4IP, 2BB, 3K, 2.25 ERA.  Not exactly struggling, although based on the limited sample size, I’m guessing he didn’t spend all that much time in the Pirates major league camp before being re-assigned to the minor league camp, where perhaps he did struggle.
Carter Tribute on tap in Montreal.  Although the Mets will be playing the Blue Jays this weekend in Montreal, I think it is a great gesture that they will be honoring the Kid before Friday night’s game (I believe).  Gary was much beloved up there in Montreal.  I don’t know how many of you caught it 2 years ago after he passed away, but the Canadians came out for the pre-game warm-up skate all wearing #8 Carter jerseys.  I even like the fact that Gary is in the Hall wearing an Expos hat.  As the Nationals pretty much deny the existence of their ancestors, the Expos, it is good to have reminders that they once existed as a franchise.
Davis or Duda?  That still remains to be seen.
Exhibition season in Florida wrapped up with today’s game vs. the Nats.  2 more games in Montreal and come Monday, the games start to count!!!
Frank Viola you are in my thoughts and prayers.  With my dad having had bypass surgery a few years back, I know exactly the anxiety you and your family must be facing.  Best wishes for a speedy recovery Sweet Music.
Gee, Dillon might not be the sexiest pick as an Opening Day starter, but consider this.  Over the last 3 years Gee has pitched to a .564 winning percentage on a team that has had a .463% winning percentage.  He must be doing something right.  If Spring Training is any indication, he may be poised for a big year, although starting Opening Day means he’ll frequently be going up against other teams’ aces, that may keep his win total down.  Let’s hope he can win 15 this year.

Coming Down the Home Stretch

So with about a week to go in Spring Training, I have to say I like what I’m seeing so far from this team.  Starting pitching has been outstanding, although Jon Niese remains a question mark.  I believe the Mets are being a little too optimistic in their thinking that he can make his first start in the 2nd series vs. the Reds given how little he’s pitched this spring.  Given the way Jenrry Mejia pitched today against what will essentially be the Nats Opening Day lineup, I have no problem with him and Dice K starting the season as our #4 and #5 starters.  Should Niese prove healthy enough, I think Mejia is a great arm in the bullpen, although the Mets may send him to Vegas to be a starter. When I did my “Things That Have to Happen for the Mets to Win 90 Games” post, I made no mention of the bullpen because all successful teams have strong bullpens, so I figured that didn’t need to be written. I think our bullpen can be a real asset this season given the way it is shaping up.  Mejia and Familia can be guys that strikeout hitters and not walk guys.  Valverde, hopefully, can be this year’s LaTroy Hawkins, providing a veteran presence in a young bullpen and an 8th inning bridge to Parnell. If Scott Rice can repeat the year he had last year, and John Lanaan can transition to a reliever (he looked good in today’s 1 inning of work), which would give us 2 lefties in the pen, we are set.  The biggest question mark is Vic Black, who when we acquired him last year from the Pirates said he envisions himself a closer some day.  He’s had a shaky spring.  Perhaps he’s simply trying too hard in an effort to show the Mets he deserves to make the Opening Day roster.  If he does, I think he’ll settle down and we’ll see the pitcher we saw last September when they called him up.
Offensively, my biggest concern is that we are winning games with guys who will play secondary roles on this team.  Wright, Murphy, d’Arnaud, Duda, and Davis have done very little so far to contribute to their winning record, though to be fair, Murphy, Duda, and Davis have seen little playing time due to injuries.  Not that I’m worried at all about the Captain, it’s just the guys who are producing these wins (Brown, Campbell, Recker, Flores) will either be bench players or out in Vegas.  I will say this though, this team does not quit, and even though it is Spring Training, they have shown the ability to comeback late and win games.  This will be an important week as the regulars start to see more playing time.  If today’s game against a Nats team loaded with starters was any indication (solid starting pitching, great relief work, a 2-run bomb by Granderson), we will be a competitive.  In another week, we’ll start to find out.  And as always, on that day, I’ll be just happy to be in the park :-)

The nerve of Scott Bor-ass

For those of you who don’t know, Scott Bor-ass is probably the most successful agent in baseball.  He routinely gets his clients contracts that are much larger than what most people think the player is worth.  Over the past few years, as the Mets have tightened their purse strings, Bor-ass has taken a few shots at them.  If you are a player and one of Bor-ass’ clients, you have to love him.  If you are a fan, not so much because one thing is certain, Bor-ass’ clients never give their current team a ”hometown discount” when the time comes to negotiate a new contract.  Given all the success he’s had over the years, you’d think that on the rare occasion when things don’t quite work out for one of his clients, he’d be willing to admit that maybe he overvalued his client, or at the very least, keep his mouth shut.  But I guess you don’t get to be  as successful as Bor-ass is  by admitting when you’re wrong or keeping quiet.
Case in point is Stephen Drew.  Now before I get into the specifics of Drew, a little background on baseball free agency.  When a player’s contract is up and they can become a free agent, their current team can usually make a 1-year qualifying offer to the player, unless the player’s expiring contract prohibits that, which was the case with Carlos Beltran in 2011.  The player can accept the 1-year offer or decline it.  However, if a player declines the 1-year offer, any team that does sign the player must compensate the former team with a draft pick (unless it is a Top 10 pick, which are protected).  If a team waits until June to sign that player, they don’t owe the former team a pick.  Okay, enough about free agency and back to Stephen Drew.  Stephen Drew is a decent SS who last year played for the Red Sox.  He became a free agent and turned down the Bosox’s 1-year offer of…wait for it…wait for it…$14.1 million.  Bor-ass figured he could get Drew a multi-year deal worth more.  Several teams were in the market for a SS this offseason, including the Mets.  But as of today, Drew remains unsigned.  Quite simply, Bor-ass overvalued his client’s worth.  Baseball America’s fantasy baseball guide only ranked Drew as the 24th best SS for the 2014 season.  Granted, it was with the caveat that much of Drew’s fantasy value would depend on what team he signed with, but still he’s not a Top 10 SS.  Bor-ass doesn’t see it this way.  In regards to the current system that is in place, a system that was voted on and approved by Drew and his union, the MLBPA, Bor-ass said, “Like any players, they (Drew and another Bor-ass client who remains unsigned) want to play baseball.  But they’re also looking at the long-term aspects of their careers. This system has placed them not in free agency, but it’s placed them in jail.”  Yes, he said his 2 unsigned players are in jail.  My Jewish friends might say Bor-ass has a lot of chutzpah to make a comment like that.  The less sophisticated among us might say he has some set of you-know-what.  Remember, Drew is in “jail” because he turned down an offer for $14.1 million.  Let’s put that in perspective.  If you are lucky enough to make $100,000 a year and have a 40-year career doing whatever you do, you’d make $4 million in your lifetime.  Drew had a guaranteed contract offer (all MLB contracts are guaranteed) of $14.1 million and on the advice of Bor-ass, chose to turn it down.  Think about that.  Drew could’ve taken that offer, shown up to Spring training in the worst shape of his life, had a terrible 3 or 4 months to the point that Red Sox cut him in July, and he’d still get his money and NEVER HAVE TO WORK ANOTHER DAY IN HIS LIFE!!!!  If that is jail, then please, somebody arrest me now.

Baseball’s back and so am I :-)

As luck would have it, right after I started blogging last summer, the keyboard on my laptop went on the fritz.  The only way I can type is by pulling up the onscreen keyboard and pointing and clicking with the mouse.  Okay for FB posts, not okay for typing a lengthy blog.  Well, now we have a new computer, a new baseball season is upon us, and I’m back to blogging.
Let’s get this season started with Sandy Alderson’s 90-win goal for the upcoming season.  Realistic expectations or delusional thinking?  I happen to like his assessment, and I think it puts just as much pressure on himself as it does the players and Terry Collins.  As a Mets fan, I’d be upset if he simply came out and said, “We’ll be better than last year.”  After a 74 win season, I’d hope they’d be better, and simply saying “We’ll be better” doesn’t set much of a goal.  I’ve made a couple of 85 win predictions the past few years (can’t remember if that was for 2011 and 2012, or 2012 and 2013), and while I’m inclined to lean that away again this year (and be very happy with 85 wins and an 11 game improvement), I think 90 wins is attainable.  However, in order to get there, an awful lot has to go right.
1.  The team as a whole has to stay healthy.  This may seem true for every team, but when you are a team with a tremendous amount of talent, the everyone staying healthy mantra is the difference between a playoff year and merely a good year.  For example, look at the 2013 Yankees.  No Jeter. No ARod.  No Texeiera. No Granderson, and yet they just missed out on the playoffs. However, when you are a marginally good team like the Mets, it will mean the difference between reaching Sandy’s goal and winning 74 games again.
2.  Bartolo Colon has to make between 30-34 starts.  He doesn’t need to pitch as well as he did last year, but we need to get a full season and at least 14 wins out of him, which if nothing else makes him an attractive trade chip, but more on that down in #9.
3.  Ike needs to be our 1B and we need him to be the second half of 2012 Ike, not the 2013 Ike.  Everyone bemoans Ike’s penchant for slow starts, seeming to forget that before he got hurt in 2011, he was off to a great start.  It would’ve been interesting to see how that season would’ve played out had he not been injured.  I was at the last game of 2013, and when Lucas Duda came up for his last AB, I remember saying out loud, “Hopefully this is your last AB as a Met.”  I just don’t think he is the solution for us at 1B and I wasn’t happy with our attempts to trade Ike during the offseason.  I think Duda would thrive in a stacked line-up when there is little pressure on him, but when you look at his production with runners on base the past few years, he’s been dreadful. He hasn’t shown the mental make-up to be “the man” and given that we don’t have all that much firepower, we need our 1B to be “the man”.
4.  Granderson needs to be Granderson.  This one doesn’t concern me as much as #3.  Ike has one really good half season under his belt.  Curtis is a proven hitter who simply is coming off an injury-plagued year.  While his numbers were certainly helped by Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions, he wasn’t a slouch at Comerica Park, a notorious pitchers’ park.  Having played and succeeded in NYC, I’m not worried about him.
5.  Wheeler needs to do what Harvey did last year and take that next big step.  I was so sure that Harvey was going to do that last year that I drafted him in fantasy baseball several rounds ahead of where most fantasy sites were projecting he’d go.  I can remember telling people how much I was looking forward to his first start against the Padres, how overmatched they’d be on a cold April night against his fastball, and they were.  7IP, 1 hit, 10K, no runs.  I’m not as confident that Wheeler will take that next big step this year.  I’m not saying he won’t be a successful pitcher, I’m just not sure he can dominate the way Harvey did last year.  Hopefully I’m wrong.
6.  We need production from d’Arnaud.  Other than last April, when Buck looked like the second coming of Piazza, catcher has been a black hole for us from an offensive point of view for some time now.  Given the demands of the position and his lack of MLB experience, I’d be happy with .275, 15HR, 60 RBI, 20+ doubles.
7.  Dillon Gee needs to continue pitching like he did last year from the Yankees game onward.
8.  We need innings and production from our #5 starter.  As a Chaminade grad, I would love to see Lannan get the spot, but if healthy, I think we’ll get more out of Dice-K.  His last few starts in September showed what he is capable of when healthy.  Given that he just signed a minor league deal, he has all the incentive in the world to go out, have a good year, and get himself a guaranteed multi-year contract next off-season.  It just won’t be from the Mets because we’ll have no need for him, which leads us to #9.
9.  A rookie pitcher, hopefully Syndergaard, has to make a significant contribution.  It sucks that $ plays such a big role in the decision making process nowadays when it comes to bringing guys up from the minors.  I think Mets fans would love nothing more than to see him have a great spring training and make the team, a la Doc Gooden in 1984.  But in all likelihood, they’ll wait until June so that pushes back by a year his eligibility for arbitration and free agency.  If he’s as good as projected, then in 2015, it’s quite likely that our 2013, and potential 2014, Opening Day starter Jon Niese, is our #4 starter.  If Colon has a good year (or is having a good year), we can trade him and be looking at a 2015 rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and Gee.  With a few other highly touted pitching prospects (Montero, de Grom. Steven Matz from LI), whose to say if even Niese and Gee will be here in 2015, even if they pitch well in 2014.
Last, but not least…
10.  David Wright needs to go back to being a 25+ HR, 100+ RBI guy.  I remember last year in June and July, Gary Cohen repeatedly saying that David was having an MVP-type year.  I didn’t buy it.  When he got hurt 2 or 3 games into August, he only had 54RBI.  Yes, he was hitting for average, and yes his OBP was up around .400, but an MVP is more than just a high avg, high OBP.  We didn’t re-sign David for 8 years to be an 80RBI guy.  Granted, other than Byrd (and Buck in April) he had virtually no support in the lineup, and it was great seeing him take his walks rather than swing at junk and try and do too much.  But from an offensive POV, even if #3, 4, and 6 work out, we only win 90 games if #10 is true as well.
Well, there you have it. My assessment for the 2014 Mets.  I’ll be interested to re-visit this come September, but for now, I’m just happy to be in the park. #LGM!!!!

Cell phone hell

The great thing about Twitter, besides the fact that certain female celebrities love posting half-naked pictures of themselves (yes Rhianna, I’m talking about you), is that it allows me to semi-follow Mets games without having to constantly open up Mets.com or the Sportscenter app on my phone.  I say semi-follow because @Mets only sends out tweets when the Mets have done something good, so a long break between @Mets tweets during a game is never a good sign.  As they are the only team I follow on Twitter, I have no way of knowing if this is standard practice for all the teams.  And though they made a game of it Saturday, including HRs by Buck and Byrd, not a single tweet was sent out during their 7-6 loss.  From what I understand, there are several people who control the @Mets account, and although I’ve tweeted them on several occasions saying, “Every score change deserves a tweet” I’ve yet to get any sort of reply.
The other problem to following games this way is when you enter a cell phone black hole as I did this weekend in southern Vermont.  The first tweet I got about the game was Kevin Burkhardt’s about Josh Satin being 3-3.  At that point, @Mets had sent out 3 tweets on the game but I’d yet to get them.  Nor could I pull up the SC app on my phone to check it out.  It amazes me that there are still gaps in cell coverage, especially up in the heavily populated Northeast.  Granted, I was in the mountains of VT, but even in places that had free wi-fi, I found the signal strength to be weak at best.  I guess all this just goes to show you how spoiled we’ve become and how reliant we are on technology that 10 years ago (that’s probably a bad guess as I don’t think smart phone apps and Twitter have even been around that long) didn’t exist.