Baseball’s back and so am I :-)
As luck would have it, right after I started blogging last summer,
the keyboard on my laptop went on the fritz. The only way I can type
is by pulling up the onscreen keyboard and pointing and clicking with
the mouse. Okay for FB posts, not okay for typing a lengthy blog.
Well, now we have a new computer
, a new baseball season is upon us, and I’m back to blogging.
Let’s get this season started with Sandy Alderson’s 90-win goal for the upcoming season. Realistic expectations or delusional thinking? I happen to like his assessment, and I think it puts just as much pressure on himself as it does the players and Terry Collins. As a Mets fan, I’d be upset if he simply came out and said, “We’ll be better than last year.” After a 74 win season, I’d hope they’d be better, and simply saying “We’ll be better” doesn’t set much of a goal. I’ve made a couple of 85 win predictions the past few years (can’t remember if that was for 2011 and 2012, or 2012 and 2013), and while I’m inclined to lean
that away again this year (and be very happy with 85 wins and an 11
game improvement), I think 90 wins is attainable. However, in order to
get there, an awful lot has to go right.
1. The team as a whole has to stay healthy. This may seem true for every team, but when you are a team with a tremendous amount of talent, the everyone staying healthy mantra is the difference between a playoff year and merely a good year.
For example, look at the 2013 Yankees. No Jeter. No ARod. No
Texeiera. No Granderson, and yet they just missed out on the
playoffs. However, when you are a marginally good team like the Mets, it
will mean the difference between reaching Sandy’s goal and winning 74
games again.
2. Bartolo Colon has to make between 30-34 starts. He doesn’t need to pitch as well as he did last year, but we need to get a full season and at least 14 wins out of him, which if nothing else makes him an attractive trade chip, but more on that down in #9.
3. Ike needs to be our 1B and we need him to be the second half of 2012 Ike, not the 2013 Ike. Everyone bemoans Ike’s penchant for slow starts, seeming to forget that before he got hurt in 2011, he was off to a great start. It would’ve been interesting to see how that season would’ve played out had he not been injured. I was at the last game of 2013, and when Lucas Duda came up for his last AB, I remember saying out loud, “Hopefully this is your last AB as a Met.” I just don’t think he is the solution for us at 1B and I wasn’t happy with our attempts to trade Ike during the offseason. I think Duda would thrive in a stacked line-up when there is little pressure on him, but when you look at his production with runners on base the past few years, he’s been dreadful. He hasn’t shown the mental make-up to be “the man” and given that we don’t have all that much firepower, we need our 1B to be “the man”.
4. Granderson needs to be Granderson. This one doesn’t concern me as much as #3. Ike has one really good half season under his belt. Curtis is a proven hitter who simply is coming off an injury-plagued year. While his numbers were certainly helped by Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions, he wasn’t a slouch at Comerica Park, a notorious pitchers’ park. Having played and succeeded in NYC, I’m not worried about him.
5. Wheeler needs to do what Harvey did last year and take that next big step. I was so sure that Harvey was going to do that last year that I drafted him in fantasy baseball several rounds ahead of where most fantasy sites were projecting he’d go. I can remember telling people how much I was looking forward to his first start against the Padres, how overmatched they’d be on a cold April night against his fastball, and they were. 7IP, 1 hit, 10K, no runs. I’m not as confident that Wheeler will take that next big step this year. I’m not saying he won’t be a successful pitcher, I’m just not sure he can dominate the way Harvey did last year. Hopefully I’m wrong.
6. We need production from d’Arnaud. Other than last April, when Buck looked like the second coming of Piazza, catcher has been a black hole for us from an offensive point of view for some time now. Given the demands of the position and his lack of MLB experience, I’d be happy with .275, 15HR, 60 RBI, 20+ doubles.
7. Dillon Gee needs to continue pitching like he did last year from the Yankees game onward.
8. We need innings and production from our #5 starter. As a Chaminade grad, I would love to see Lannan get the spot, but if healthy, I think we’ll get more out of Dice-K. His last few starts in September showed what he is capable of when healthy. Given that he just signed a minor league deal, he has all the incentive in the world to go out, have a good year,
and get himself a guaranteed multi-year contract next off-season. It
just won’t be from the Mets because we’ll have no need for him, which
leads us to #9.
9. A rookie pitcher, hopefully Syndergaard, has to make a significant contribution. It sucks that $ plays such a big role in the decision making process nowadays when it comes to bringing guys up from the minors. I think Mets fans would love nothing more than to see him have a great spring training and make the team, a la Doc Gooden in 1984. But in all likelihood, they’ll wait until June so that pushes back by a year his eligibility for arbitration and free agency. If he’s as good as projected, then in 2015, it’s quite likely that our 2013, and potential 2014, Opening Day starter Jon Niese, is our #4 starter. If Colon has a good year
(or is having a good year), we can trade him and be looking at a 2015
rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and Gee. With a few
other highly touted pitching prospects (Montero, de Grom. Steven Matz
from LI), whose to say if even Niese and Gee will be here in 2015, even
if they pitch well in 2014.
Last, but not least…
10. David Wright needs to go back to being a 25+ HR, 100+ RBI guy. I remember last year in June and July, Gary Cohen repeatedly saying that David was having an MVP-type year. I didn’t buy it. When he got hurt 2 or 3 games into August, he only had 54RBI. Yes, he was hitting for average, and yes his OBP was up around .400, but an MVP is more
than just a high avg, high OBP. We didn’t re-sign David for 8 years to
be an 80RBI guy. Granted, other than Byrd (and Buck in April) he had
virtually no support in the lineup, and it was great seeing him take his
walks rather than swing at junk and try and do too much. But from an
offensive POV, even if #3, 4, and 6 work out, we only win 90 games if
#10 is true as well.
Well, there you have it. My assessment for the 2014 Mets. I’ll be interested to re-visit this come September, but for now, I’m just happy to be in the park. #LGM!!!!
, a new baseball season is upon us, and I’m back to blogging.Let’s get this season started with Sandy Alderson’s 90-win goal for the upcoming season. Realistic expectations or delusional thinking? I happen to like his assessment, and I think it puts just as much pressure on himself as it does the players and Terry Collins. As a Mets fan, I’d be upset if he simply came out and said, “We’ll be better than last year.” After a 74 win season, I’d hope they’d be better, and simply saying “We’ll be better” doesn’t set much of a goal. I’ve made a couple of 85 win predictions the past few years (can’t remember if that was for 2011 and 2012, or 2012 and 2013), and while I’m inclined to lean
that away again this year (and be very happy with 85 wins and an 11
game improvement), I think 90 wins is attainable. However, in order to
get there, an awful lot has to go right.1. The team as a whole has to stay healthy. This may seem true for every team, but when you are a team with a tremendous amount of talent, the everyone staying healthy mantra is the difference between a playoff year and merely a good year
.
For example, look at the 2013 Yankees. No Jeter. No ARod. No
Texeiera. No Granderson, and yet they just missed out on the
playoffs. However, when you are a marginally good team like the Mets, it
will mean the difference between reaching Sandy’s goal and winning 74
games again.2. Bartolo Colon has to make between 30-34 starts. He doesn’t need to pitch as well as he did last year, but we need to get a full season and at least 14 wins out of him, which if nothing else makes him an attractive trade chip, but more
on that down in #9.3. Ike needs to be our 1B and we need him to be the second half of 2012 Ike, not the 2013 Ike. Everyone bemoans Ike’s penchant for slow starts, seeming to forget that before he got hurt in 2011, he was off to a great start. It would’ve been interesting to see how that season would’ve played out had he not been injured. I was at the last game of 2013, and when Lucas Duda came up for his last AB, I remember saying out loud, “Hopefully this is your last AB as a Met.” I just don’t think he is the solution for us at 1B and I wasn’t happy with our attempts to trade Ike during the offseason. I think Duda would thrive in a stacked line-up when there is little pressure on him, but when you look at his production with runners on base the past few years, he’s been dreadful. He hasn’t shown the mental make-up to be “the man” and given that we don’t have all that much firepower, we need our 1B to be “the man”.
4. Granderson needs to be Granderson. This one doesn’t concern me as much as #3. Ike has one really good half season under his belt. Curtis is a proven hitter who simply is coming off an injury-plagued year. While his numbers were certainly helped by Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions, he wasn’t a slouch at Comerica Park
, a notorious pitchers’ park. Having played and succeeded in NYC, I’m not worried about him.5. Wheeler needs to do what Harvey did last year and take that next big step. I was so sure that Harvey was going to do that last year that I drafted him in fantasy baseball several rounds ahead of where most fantasy sites were projecting he’d go. I can remember telling people how much I was looking forward to his first start against the Padres, how overmatched they’d be on a cold April night against his fastball, and they were. 7IP, 1 hit, 10K, no runs. I’m not as confident that Wheeler will take that next big step this year. I’m not saying he won’t be a successful pitcher, I’m just not sure he can dominate the way Harvey did last year. Hopefully I’m wrong.
6. We need production from d’Arnaud. Other than last April, when Buck looked like the second coming of Piazza, catcher has been a black hole for us from an offensive point of view for some time now. Given the demands of the position and his lack of MLB experience, I’d be happy with .275, 15HR, 60 RBI, 20+ doubles.
7. Dillon Gee needs to continue
pitching like he did last year from the Yankees game onward.8. We need innings and production from our #5 starter. As a Chaminade grad, I would love to see Lannan get the spot, but if healthy, I think we’ll get more out of Dice-K. His last few starts in September showed what he is capable of when healthy. Given that he just signed a minor league deal, he has all the incentive in the world to go out, have a good year
,
and get himself a guaranteed multi-year contract next off-season. It
just won’t be from the Mets because we’ll have no need for him, which
leads us to #9.9. A rookie pitcher, hopefully Syndergaard, has to make a significant contribution. It sucks that $ plays such a big role in the decision making process nowadays when it comes to bringing guys up from the minors. I think Mets fans would love nothing more than to see him have a great spring training and make the team, a la Doc Gooden in 1984. But in all likelihood, they’ll wait until June so that pushes back by a year his eligibility for arbitration and free agency. If he’s as good as projected, then in 2015, it’s quite likely that our 2013, and potential 2014, Opening Day starter Jon Niese, is our #4 starter. If Colon has a good year
(or is having a good year), we can trade him and be looking at a 2015
rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and Gee. With a few
other highly touted pitching prospects (Montero, de Grom. Steven Matz
from LI), whose to say if even Niese and Gee will be here in 2015, even
if they pitch well in 2014.Last, but not least…
10. David Wright needs to go back to being a 25+ HR, 100+ RBI guy. I remember last year in June and July, Gary Cohen repeatedly saying that David was having an MVP-type year. I didn’t buy it. When he got hurt 2 or 3 games into August, he only had 54RBI. Yes, he was hitting for average, and yes his OBP was up around .400, but an MVP is more
than just a high avg, high OBP. We didn’t re-sign David for 8 years to
be an 80RBI guy. Granted, other than Byrd (and Buck in April) he had
virtually no support in the lineup, and it was great seeing him take his
walks rather than swing at junk and try and do too much. But from an
offensive POV, even if #3, 4, and 6 work out, we only win 90 games if
#10 is true as well.Well, there you have it. My assessment for the 2014 Mets. I’ll be interested to re-visit this come September, but for now, I’m just happy to be in the park. #LGM!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment