Week 1 recap

Originally posted on April 8, 2014

6 games and 1 week in the books and what can we say so far about the Mets season?

The starting pitching has been solid, but not spectacular.  Had Niese gotten the 3rd out in the 6th inning on Sunday, we would’ve been 6 for 6 in quality starts.  Granted, I’m not the biggest fan of that stat because if you give up 3 ER in 6 innings you are pitching to a 4.50 ERA, but it does has some merit.  I think Niese gave us more than any of us expected Sunday, and on a very tough night to pitch, Mejia showed us why, at least for 1 start, he deserves to be in the rotation.
It is a tale of two cities in the bullpen. On the one hand you have Valverde, Farnsworth, and Germen who have combined for 11 IP, 8H, 3 BB, 14K, and only 2 ER.  On the other hand you have Torres, Rice, Familia, and Lannan who have combined for 5.1 IP, 12H, 6 BB, 6K and 10 ER.  OUCH!!!! As much as Rice was a feel-good story last year, there’s a reason why he spent 11 years in the minors before making it to the big leagues.  I’d love nothing more than to see Lannan thrive in the bullpen.  He’s a LI guy and fellow Chaminade alum (Go Flyers!!!), but if those 4 continue to struggle, will the Mets take a page out of the Cardinals playbook and bring up some of their young starting pitching and use them in the bullpen?
We are hitting HRs and not much else. Our 7 HRs have us tied for 6th in the majors, but our 33 hits overall and .178 team batting average both rank dead last, and our 61 Ks are near the top in a category you’d rather not lead the league in. To be fair, the Dodgers have struck out the most and they are 5-3 so you can strikeout a lot and still win.  Still, with 2nd and 3rd and 1 out in Sunday’s game, wouldn’t it have been nice if either Murphy or Wright had just delivered a single to score 2 runs?
TC seems willing to give Gee a little more leeway than the other pitchers.  In both his starts, you kind of felt like TC went one batter too long with Gee.  In Saturday’s game, he started the 8th inning having thrown 92 pitches.  Not an unreasonable amount, but we’ve seen that for whatever reason, Dillon seems to “lose it” rather quickly.  After giving up the leadoff double, that was probably the time to go get him.  The Opening Day start was a little trickier.  Before running into trouble in the 7th inning, he was on cruise control, having retired 15 in a row.  But with 2 outs, a man on first, and LaRoche, who had already homered off him in the game, coming up, you had to be thinking that TC was going to go to the lefty there.  Of course he didn’t and we know how the inning turned out.  Part of me wonders if TC is trying to send Dillon a message, something to the effect of “For now, you’re our ace, get yourself out of these innings the way Harvey would.”  I don’t know, maybe I’m overthinking it or reading too much into those 2 starts, but it will be interesting to see if it continues.
Can this team win on the road like last year’s team did?  This first road trip will give us some idea how that question will be answered  I have to thank the schedule makers.  Very glad that the Mets head out west to LA and Arizona the week of Spring break.  Staying up to watch the games is much easier when I don’t have to go to work the next day!!!!

“The Sky is Not Falling!!!” I repeat, “The Sky is Not Falling!!!”

Originally posted on April 2, 2014

 

Clearly yesterday’s Opening Day loss was an omen of what is to come this season, a dreadful 90 loss campaign that will have even the most loyal, diehard fans storming the gates of CitiField with torches and pitchforks demanding the Wilpons’ heads on silver platters.  If you don’t agree, then surely the news this morning that Parnell is going on the DL (and let’s face it, is probably done for the season) is the sign of the Mets apocalypse.  Repent Mets fans.  The end isn’t near, it is here, even though we’ve only just begun.  Here’s SNY’s Chris Carlin’s tweet from earlier today: Sandy wants to “change the conversation” Day 1 – bad loss, and major injury. Same conversation. Horrible luck. Brutal loss.
I get it.  In this day and age of Twitter, 24/7 sports talk, team-owned TV stations, people like Carlin, Francesa, Michael Kay have to fill their time by often making something out of nothing.  Loud Mouths on SNY isn’t much of a show if you don’t have something to argue about.  The past two years when the Mets have won on Opening Day, I’ve driven home listening to Francesa talk not about how the Mets won, but what a joke it was they claimed the game was a sell out when he could see so many empty seats on TV.  You have to push people’s buttons, and what better way to do that than point to yesterday’s loss as a portent of things to come.  I, however, would like to try and be a little more rational.
Let’s put yesterday’s loss in perspective. The Mets have the all-time best winning percentage on Opening Day.  What has that gotten us in our 50+ years of existence?  23 winning seasons, 7 playoff appearances, 4 World Series appearances, and 2 WS championships.  Clearly our success on Opening Day has never translated to overall success, so if winning on Opening Day hasn’t meant all that much to us as a franchise, why does losing yesterday have to mean all that much?  Secondly, last time I looked, 15 teams lost (or will lose as some teams open today) on Opening Day, including Boston, Atlanta, and Texas, all teams predicted to be in the playoff hunt.  The Yankees, having spent about $3 trillion this offseason, lost tonight to the Astros, a team that managed all of 51 wins last year, a team that has had 3 consecutive 100-loss seasons (move over Mets fans, we’ve got to make room on the ledge for the Yankee fans who want to join us).  In “Bull Durham”, Crash Davis told Nuke LaLoosh that he had to learn his clichés, so let’s throw a few out there.  One loss does not a season make (unless it’s Game 162 of the Red Sox 2011 season, but that’s an entirely different situation).  The baseball season isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon.  Now isn’t the time to panic (although as I type that I hear Sherriff Woody shout, ”This is the perfect time to panic!!!”).
Look, the Mets play 27 games in March/April.  If we get to April 30th and our record sits at 10-17, maybe I’ll start to sing with the chorus that began chirping the second Parnell gave up the game-tying hit yesterday.  Who knows, maybe those people heading for the lifeboats are the smart ones and I’m just the idiot playing in the band on the deck of the Titanic.  But rather than add my voice to the list of naysayers, I’d like to hope that yesterday’s loss, to quote Monty Python, was merely a flesh wound.  Regardless, I was there yesterday to witness the game, and as always, win or lose, I was just happy to be in the park.

2014 win prediction

Originally posted on March 30, 2014

 

For those of you who read my “what it will take to reach Sandy’s goal of 90 wins” post, you know I was thinking 85 wins.  However, after watching a considerable number of games this spring, I’m going to go with 82 wins for the season.  I just haven’t seen enough offense for us to consistently win close games.  I think our pitching will be our strength.  The loss of Harvey doesn’t concern me that much.  Remember, he only won 9 games last year.  Colon should more than make up for that.  And I do think we are better than we were last year.  Hopefully, if we can still be in the 2nd wild card mix in July the Mets will be buyers and not sellers and we can add a bat to the lineup, but unless our SS and 1B start producing, I don’t see us approaching 85+ wins, let alone Sandy’s goal of 90.  I hope I’m wrong.  Either way, let’s hope the rain gets out of here early tomorrow so we can….PLAY BALL!!!!

A, B, C, D, E, F, and Gee!!!!!!!

Originally posted on March 28, 2014

 

Amazing how negative Mets fans can be and the season hasn’t even started yet.  You go and read the articles at Mets.com, and the comments people post are ridiculous.  You’d think it’s September already and we’re sitting at 70-90 with 2 games to go.  This team has holes, I get it.  We haven’t answered our 1B question.  Our SS may not be an area of strength.  But can we at least be optimistic for a few weeks, through April maybe? Is that asking too much?  If we can have some optimism now, when will we have it?
Bet on Black, in Vegas at least.  After a weak Spring Training, that’s where Vic Black finds himself. Hopefully, he can “find” himself and return to the parent club.  Apparently though, Vic has a short memory. After being sent down, he said he had struggled the past 2 springs before righting himself once the regular season begins.  Now I was unable to find any Spring Training stats for him in 2012, but in 2013 his stats were 4 games, 4IP, 2BB, 3K, 2.25 ERA.  Not exactly struggling, although based on the limited sample size, I’m guessing he didn’t spend all that much time in the Pirates major league camp before being re-assigned to the minor league camp, where perhaps he did struggle.
Carter Tribute on tap in Montreal.  Although the Mets will be playing the Blue Jays this weekend in Montreal, I think it is a great gesture that they will be honoring the Kid before Friday night’s game (I believe).  Gary was much beloved up there in Montreal.  I don’t know how many of you caught it 2 years ago after he passed away, but the Canadians came out for the pre-game warm-up skate all wearing #8 Carter jerseys.  I even like the fact that Gary is in the Hall wearing an Expos hat.  As the Nationals pretty much deny the existence of their ancestors, the Expos, it is good to have reminders that they once existed as a franchise.
Davis or Duda?  That still remains to be seen.
Exhibition season in Florida wrapped up with today’s game vs. the Nats.  2 more games in Montreal and come Monday, the games start to count!!!
Frank Viola you are in my thoughts and prayers.  With my dad having had bypass surgery a few years back, I know exactly the anxiety you and your family must be facing.  Best wishes for a speedy recovery Sweet Music.
Gee, Dillon might not be the sexiest pick as an Opening Day starter, but consider this.  Over the last 3 years Gee has pitched to a .564 winning percentage on a team that has had a .463% winning percentage.  He must be doing something right.  If Spring Training is any indication, he may be poised for a big year, although starting Opening Day means he’ll frequently be going up against other teams’ aces, that may keep his win total down.  Let’s hope he can win 15 this year.

Coming Down the Home Stretch

Originally posted on March 24, 2014

 

So with about a week to go in Spring Training, I have to say I like what I’m seeing so far from this team.  Starting pitching has been outstanding, although Jon Niese remains a question mark.  I believe the Mets are being a little too optimistic in their thinking that he can make his first start in the 2nd series vs. the Reds given how little he’s pitched this spring.  Given the way Jenrry Mejia pitched today against what will essentially be the Nats Opening Day lineup, I have no problem with him and Dice K starting the season as our #4 and #5 starters.  Should Niese prove healthy enough, I think Mejia is a great arm in the bullpen, although the Mets may send him to Vegas to be a starter. When I did my “Things That Have to Happen for the Mets to Win 90 Games” post, I made no mention of the bullpen because all successful teams have strong bullpens, so I figured that didn’t need to be written. I think our bullpen can be a real asset this season given the way it is shaping up.  Mejia and Familia can be guys that strikeout hitters and not walk guys.  Valverde, hopefully, can be this year’s LaTroy Hawkins, providing a veteran presence in a young bullpen and an 8th inning bridge to Parnell. If Scott Rice can repeat the year he had last year, and John Lanaan can transition to a reliever (he looked good in today’s 1 inning of work), which would give us 2 lefties in the pen, we are set.  The biggest question mark is Vic Black, who when we acquired him last year from the Pirates said he envisions himself a closer some day.  He’s had a shaky spring.  Perhaps he’s simply trying too hard in an effort to show the Mets he deserves to make the Opening Day roster.  If he does, I think he’ll settle down and we’ll see the pitcher we saw last September when they called him up.
Offensively, my biggest concern is that we are winning games with guys who will play secondary roles on this team.  Wright, Murphy, d’Arnaud, Duda, and Davis have done very little so far to contribute to their winning record, though to be fair, Murphy, Duda, and Davis have seen little playing time due to injuries.  Not that I’m worried at all about the Captain, it’s just the guys who are producing these wins (Brown, Campbell, Recker, Flores) will either be bench players or out in Vegas.  I will say this though, this team does not quit, and even though it is Spring Training, they have shown the ability to comeback late and win games.  This will be an important week as the regulars start to see more playing time.  If today’s game against a Nats team loaded with starters was any indication (solid starting pitching, great relief work, a 2-run bomb by Granderson), we will be a competitive.  In another week, we’ll start to find out.  And as always, on that day, I’ll be just happy to be in the park

The nerve of Scott Bor-ass

Originally posted on March 19, 2014

For those of you who don’t know, Scott Bor-ass is probably the most successful agent in baseball.  He routinely gets his clients contracts that are much larger than what most people think the player is worth.  Over the past few years, as the Mets have tightened their purse strings, Bor-ass has taken a few shots at them.  If you are a player and one of Bor-ass’ clients, you have to love him.  If you are a fan, not so much because one thing is certain, Bor-ass’ clients never give their current team a ”hometown discount” when the time comes to negotiate a new contract.  Given all the success he’s had over the years, you’d think that on the rare occasion when things don’t quite work out for one of his clients, he’d be willing to admit that maybe he overvalued his client, or at the very least, keep his mouth shut.  But I guess you don’t get to be  as successful as Bor-ass is  by admitting when you’re wrong or keeping quiet.
Case in point is Stephen Drew.  Now before I get into the specifics of Drew, a little background on baseball free agency.  When a player’s contract is up and they can become a free agent, their current team can usually make a 1-year qualifying offer to the player, unless the player’s expiring contract prohibits that, which was the case with Carlos Beltran in 2011.  The player can accept the 1-year offer or decline it.  However, if a player declines the 1-year offer, any team that does sign the player must compensate the former team with a draft pick (unless it is a Top 10 pick, which are protected).  If a team waits until June to sign that player, they don’t owe the former team a pick.  Okay, enough about free agency and back to Stephen Drew.  Stephen Drew is a decent SS who last year played for the Red Sox.  He became a free agent and turned down the Bosox’s 1-year offer of…wait for it…wait for it…$14.1 million.  Bor-ass figured he could get Drew a multi-year deal worth more.  Several teams were in the market for a SS this offseason, including the Mets.  But as of today, Drew remains unsigned.  Quite simply, Bor-ass overvalued his client’s worth.  Baseball America’s fantasy baseball guide only ranked Drew as the 24th best SS for the 2014 season.  Granted, it was with the caveat that much of Drew’s fantasy value would depend on what team he signed with, but still he’s not a Top 10 SS.  Bor-ass doesn’t see it this way.  In regards to the current system that is in place, a system that was voted on and approved by Drew and his union, the MLBPA, Bor-ass said, “Like any players, they (Drew and another Bor-ass client who remains unsigned) want to play baseball.  But they’re also looking at the long-term aspects of their careers. This system has placed them not in free agency, but it’s placed them in jail.”  Yes, he said his 2 unsigned players are in jail.  My Jewish friends might say Bor-ass has a lot of chutzpah to make a comment like that.  The less sophisticated among us might say he has some set of you-know-what.  Remember, Drew is in “jail” because he turned down an offer for $14.1 million.  Let’s put that in perspective.  If you are lucky enough to make $100,000 a year and have a 40-year career doing whatever you do, you’d make $4 million in your lifetime.  Drew had a guaranteed contract offer (all MLB contracts are guaranteed) of $14.1 million and on the advice of Bor-ass, chose to turn it down.  Think about that.  Drew could’ve taken that offer, shown up to Spring training in the worst shape of his life, had a terrible 3 or 4 months to the point that Red Sox cut him in July, and he’d still get his money and NEVER HAVE TO WORK ANOTHER DAY IN HIS LIFE!!!!  If that is jail, then please, somebody arrest me now.

Baseball’s back and so am I :-)

Originally posted on March 1, 2014

As luck would have it, right after I started blogging last summer, the keyboard on my laptop went on the fritz.  The only way I can type is by pulling up the onscreen keyboard and pointing and clicking with the mouse.  Okay for FB posts, not okay for typing a lengthy blog.  Well, now we have a new computer, a new baseball season is upon us, and I’m back to blogging.
Let’s get this season started with Sandy Alderson’s 90-win goal for the upcoming season.  Realistic expectations or delusional thinking?  I happen to like his assessment, and I think it puts just as much pressure on himself as it does the players and Terry Collins.  As a Mets fan, I’d be upset if he simply came out and said, “We’ll be better than last year.”  After a 74 win season, I’d hope they’d be better, and simply saying “We’ll be better” doesn’t set much of a goal.  I’ve made a couple of 85 win predictions the past few years (can’t remember if that was for 2011 and 2012, or 2012 and 2013), and while I’m inclined to lean that away again this year (and be very happy with 85 wins and an 11 game improvement), I think 90 wins is attainable.  However, in order to get there, an awful lot has to go right.
1.  The team as a whole has to stay healthy.  This may seem true for every team, but when you are a team with a tremendous amount of talent, the everyone staying healthy mantra is the difference between a playoff year and merely a good year.  For example, look at the 2013 Yankees.  No Jeter. No ARod.  No Texeiera. No Granderson, and yet they just missed out on the playoffs. However, when you are a marginally good team like the Mets, it will mean the difference between reaching Sandy’s goal and winning 74 games again.
2.  Bartolo Colon has to make between 30-34 starts.  He doesn’t need to pitch as well as he did last year, but we need to get a full season and at least 14 wins out of him, which if nothing else makes him an attractive trade chip, but more on that down in #9.
3.  Ike needs to be our 1B and we need him to be the second half of 2012 Ike, not the 2013 Ike.  Everyone bemoans Ike’s penchant for slow starts, seeming to forget that before he got hurt in 2011, he was off to a great start.  It would’ve been interesting to see how that season would’ve played out had he not been injured.  I was at the last game of 2013, and when Lucas Duda came up for his last AB, I remember saying out loud, “Hopefully this is your last AB as a Met.”  I just don’t think he is the solution for us at 1B and I wasn’t happy with our attempts to trade Ike during the offseason.  I think Duda would thrive in a stacked line-up when there is little pressure on him, but when you look at his production with runners on base the past few years, he’s been dreadful. He hasn’t shown the mental make-up to be “the man” and given that we don’t have all that much firepower, we need our 1B to be “the man”.
4.  Granderson needs to be Granderson.  This one doesn’t concern me as much as #3.  Ike has one really good half season under his belt.  Curtis is a proven hitter who simply is coming off an injury-plagued year.  While his numbers were certainly helped by Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions, he wasn’t a slouch at Comerica Park, a notorious pitchers’ park.  Having played and succeeded in NYC, I’m not worried about him.
5.  Wheeler needs to do what Harvey did last year and take that next big step.  I was so sure that Harvey was going to do that last year that I drafted him in fantasy baseball several rounds ahead of where most fantasy sites were projecting he’d go.  I can remember telling people how much I was looking forward to his first start against the Padres, how overmatched they’d be on a cold April night against his fastball, and they were.  7IP, 1 hit, 10K, no runs.  I’m not as confident that Wheeler will take that next big step this year.  I’m not saying he won’t be a successful pitcher, I’m just not sure he can dominate the way Harvey did last year.  Hopefully I’m wrong.
6.  We need production from d’Arnaud.  Other than last April, when Buck looked like the second coming of Piazza, catcher has been a black hole for us from an offensive point of view for some time now.  Given the demands of the position and his lack of MLB experience, I’d be happy with .275, 15HR, 60 RBI, 20+ doubles.
7.  Dillon Gee needs to continue pitching like he did last year from the Yankees game onward.
8.  We need innings and production from our #5 starter.  As a Chaminade grad, I would love to see Lannan get the spot, but if healthy, I think we’ll get more out of Dice-K.  His last few starts in September showed what he is capable of when healthy.  Given that he just signed a minor league deal, he has all the incentive in the world to go out, have a good year, and get himself a guaranteed multi-year contract next off-season.  It just won’t be from the Mets because we’ll have no need for him, which leads us to #9.
9.  A rookie pitcher, hopefully Syndergaard, has to make a significant contribution.  It sucks that $ plays such a big role in the decision making process nowadays when it comes to bringing guys up from the minors.  I think Mets fans would love nothing more than to see him have a great spring training and make the team, a la Doc Gooden in 1984.  But in all likelihood, they’ll wait until June so that pushes back by a year his eligibility for arbitration and free agency.  If he’s as good as projected, then in 2015, it’s quite likely that our 2013, and potential 2014, Opening Day starter Jon Niese, is our #4 starter.  If Colon has a good year (or is having a good year), we can trade him and be looking at a 2015 rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and Gee.  With a few other highly touted pitching prospects (Montero, de Grom. Steven Matz from LI), whose to say if even Niese and Gee will be here in 2015, even if they pitch well in 2014.
Last, but not least…
10.  David Wright needs to go back to being a 25+ HR, 100+ RBI guy.  I remember last year in June and July, Gary Cohen repeatedly saying that David was having an MVP-type year.  I didn’t buy it.  When he got hurt 2 or 3 games into August, he only had 54RBI.  Yes, he was hitting for average, and yes his OBP was up around .400, but an MVP is more than just a high avg, high OBP.  We didn’t re-sign David for 8 years to be an 80RBI guy.  Granted, other than Byrd (and Buck in April) he had virtually no support in the lineup, and it was great seeing him take his walks rather than swing at junk and try and do too much.  But from an offensive POV, even if #3, 4, and 6 work out, we only win 90 games if #10 is true as well.
Well, there you have it. My assessment for the 2014 Mets.  I’ll be interested to re-visit this come September, but for now, I’m just happy to be in the park. #LGM!!!!