As soon as the Mets finished off their NLCS sweep of the Cubs, I headed to Modell's to pick up some new shirts. I arrived only a few minutes after the last out, around midnight, to find a line of a few hundred like-minded had already formed. An hour later, I was back home, still too wired to even think of going to bed. Instead, I started on Facebook what I thought would be a short post. But when you are a combination of giddy, punch drunk, and sleep deprived (I was at 3 of the 4 Citifield playoff games, missing only Game 1 of the LCS for my brother-in-law's wedding), short posts turn into this...
I'm not even sure what to say at this point. As passionate a Mets fan as I have been over the years, I don't think I've ever been more emotionally invested in a team than this year's group. The 23 games I went to in the regular season could've easily been 33,43,53. 1986 is a distant memory. I was a senior in HS. The team was a collection of arrogant SOBs, and by early summer it was almost a foregone conclusion that we would win the World Series. Sure they made us sweat t out, but that only made their win all that much sweeter. Then there was the heartbreak of 1988, being 1 out away from going up 3-1 on the Dodgers in the NLCS only to see Mike Scioscia hit a game-tying HR off Doc Gooden and eventually losing in 7 games. 1999 and 2000 brought life back into the fan base and the franchise, and to this day Mets fan swear if Benetiez hadn't blown the save in Game 1 of the Subway Series, we would've beat the Yanks. But these are the Mets, a franchise that can never sustain excellence, so once again we had to endure a few years of futility. A few years of Art Howe. 2006. Time for us to rise again. Runaway with the NL East. Not quite 1986, but pretty damn good. Steam roll the Dodgers in the LDS. Home field advantage in the LCS against a rather mediocre Cardinals team. Game 7. The Endy Chavez catch that had me so excited I turned and gave Joe Roccaro a big kiss on his cheek. Fate. Destiny. A sign from the gods that we would once again be going to the WS. Only baseball is a cruel game. As former commissioner Bart Giamatti once said, "It's a game designed to break your heart." 1 Adam Wainwright curveball later and mine and 55,000+ other hearts at Shea Stadium were broken that night. Ok, we'll get'em next year. This team is no one-hit wonder. 2007. 7 game lead with 17 to play. No one has ever blown a lead like that. But again...it's a game designed to break your heart. 2008. Not quite the same September lead, but a lead nonetheless. Once again gone. Need a win the last day of the season. The last regular season game to be played at Shea Stadium. No way this building closes like this. No way we shut the doors on our beloved Shea (don't you call it a dump, only those of us who bleed orange and blue have earned the right to call it a dump, and only in the most loving way possible) with a loss. We can't possibly have our hearts broken for a 3rd year in a row, right? The game's not that cruel, right Bart? Then 6 years of futility. 6 years of Mets fans wishing for a September collapse because at least it meant we had a shot at something. The phrase "meaningful games" in September becomes a running joke, only it's not so funny. And each year our beautiful new park sees fewer and fewer people. But we are still there. The ones who know what Mike Bordick and Bubba Trammell did in back to back Mets games. The ones who know the players the Mets got when they traded away the Franchise. The ones who know why the sound of a cowbell puts a smile on so many faces. The ones who know names like Nino Espinosa, and Bruce Boisclair, and Gil Flores. And then one glorious night, the 2013 All-Star Game, we take center stage. And the man who can lead us back to the promised land, the Dark Knight, takes his place on the mound. And while we know 2013 isn't quite our time yet, it soon will be. Wait, Bart, did you say something? No, baseball isn't THAT cruel. Harvey can't be hurt. He's Gotham's Dark Knight. And so 2014 is over before it even starts and it becomes much like 2013, and 2012, and 2011, and on and on. We are a joke. A laughingstock. Lovable losers? Sorry, the Cubs have laid claim to that title. We're just losers. But spring is a season of rebirth, a time when every baseball fan thinks, "This is the year for my team." 11 wins in a row in April? Maybe this year is different. Maybe it's not. Why is it taking Wright so long to come back from a hamstring injury? What? He's got spinal what? Who are we batting clean-up? John Mayberry Jr? Didn't we sign him to be a 4th OF and pinch hitter. What's his average? WHAT??????? A post softball game meal at Croxsley's. Hey guys, Mets made a deal. Wow, Carlos Gomez! That's not a bad trade. Sorry to see Wheeler go, and Flores. Wait, is Flores crying? No, why would you have a guy who's crying out in the field. Holy s#$t, he is crying! The trade's off? Are you kidding me??? Just when you think this franchise can't become anymore of a joke, it does. Another lost season. Maybe we'll play .500 ball. What's that you say? They made a few trades? Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard. Nice supporting pieces, but not the kind of guys to put us over the top. No, we need someone big, and it seems like the New York Mets don't pull off big trades anymore. But they pull off perhaps the most important trade in franchise history. Cespedes and the pitching staff put the team on their collective backs, and we have perhaps the most amazing 2 months of regular season games in our history. And suddenly what seemed improbable becomes possible. 2015 NL East Champs!! Bring on the Dodgers. 2 possible Cy Young Award winners? We don't care. We'll beat them both. Have a game stolen from us by a dirty slide and an even worse call by the umps? So what. #WinforReuben. Those lovable losers, the Cubs? Guess what? They stand between us and the WS. No problem. See, not only do we have of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, we have a 2nd baseman named Daniel Murphy? Murphy? Yeah, I've heard of him. Decent player. Gets a fair amount of hits. Makes contact. Plays with a lot of heart. Makes some bonehead plays from time to time. Isn't he the one who missed Opening Day to be at his son's birth? Not much of a power hitter though is he? But remember, baseball is a cruel game. Only this time, it's not we Mets fans saying that. For 9 glorious games so far, Murphy has become an answer to a trivia question. The kind of player that someday my boys will say to their kids, "I remember what Murphy did in the 2015 playoffs" which brings us to where we are now....4 wins away from what would be one of the sweetest World Series victories ever. It's okay Mets fans. Dare to dream. #LGM
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Playoffs, here we come!!!!
So I blogged exactly once this season. If you want to get technical, I actually never blogged this season since my one post came before the season started. I ended that post like this:
If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet the over in a heartbeat on an 83 win season. I think the Mets will win 88 games this year and earn a wild card, and wouldn't be surprised if they hit that magic number of 90. It's time to believe again!
Turns out I was a pretty good prognosticator when it came to wins, but way off on the wild card thing. In fact, 88 wins wasn't nearly enough to get a wild card this year as the Pirates and Cubs won 98 and 97 games respectively. So Mets fans should be extremely grateful that the Nationals had such an underwhelming year.
Getting into specifics of my preseason predictions, I was much more on target with how I thought our starting pitching would fare. I was looking for 60 wins from the top 5 starters based on game starts, and I had predicted 12 wins for Colon, 12 for de Grom, 15 for Harvey, 11 for Niese, and 10 for Gee. In the end, our top 5 starters ended up being Colon (31 GS, 14 wins), de Grom (30 GS, 14 wins), Harvey (29 GS, 13 wins), Niese (29 GS, 9 wins), and Syndergaard (24 GS, 9 wins), who combined for 59 wins.
On the offensive side of the ball, I had said we won 79 games with only one key player, Duda, having a career year, and 2 key players, Wright and Granderson, having sub-par years. Well if you look at this year's lineup, no one had a career year (except maybe Flores, but then again, he never really played a full season, so it's hard to say 2015 was a career year for him). Granderson had a very good year, but not a career year. Duda had decent numbers, but not like last year. I thought Cuddyer would be an upgrade in the lineup, and he wasn't. Given another year of maturity and experience, I looked for Lagares to put up better numbers. He didn't. With d'Arnaud being out for large chunks of time, we once again didn't get much from our catchers. And given how little he played, I'm not sure it's even fair to rate the Captain's season, but needless to say, third base didn't produce much for us this year. So for much of 2015, our offense was quite offensive, hitting it's nadir when Campbell and Mayberry, Jr batted 3rd and 4th (or 4th and 5th, I can't recall) while both sporting sub-.200 averages. But then July 31st rolled around, and the Mets made a trade deadline move, after NOT making a deal a few days earlier, that all future Mets trade deadline moves will be compared to, the move that transformed the team from a .500 team treading water to the eventual NL East champs. We got Cespedes, and our anemic offense became a thing of the past. The regulars started hitting, the other pieces we picked up (Johnson, Uribe) contributed big hits, and Conforto showed he belongs in the big leagues. Yes, the lineup did disappear again the last week of the season, and that has to be a major concern heading into the NLDS, but for most of August and September, there were few lineups that could match what the Mets were doing on a daily basis.
I was in Vegas in mid-August and was going to place a bet on the Mets winning the World Series, but my wife said, "Just enjoy the ride." Instead, I placed bets on the Giants and Jets winning the Super Bowl. In the spirit of "enjoying the ride", I'm not going to make a playoff prediction. I will say this. The pitching has been there all year. There's no reason to believe it won't show up in the playoffs. If the Mets are going to go anywhere, they'll need their August to mid-September offense to show up as well.
Saturday, April 4, 2015
83 Wins? I'm taking the over!!!!!
With Opening Day so close you can almost smell the ballpark hot dogs, it's time to look at the Mets chances this season. For fans of all teams, hope always springs eternal this time of the year, even more so this year for Mets fans. After years of frustration and disappointment, we are primed to re-join the ranks of the baseball elite. It seems like oddsmakers have them pinned for 83 wins this season. I know a lot of statistical analysis goes into people like Baseball Prospectus creating those projected win totals, but I'm just not buying that we are only 4 wins better than last year. I think there's really two simple reasons why the Mets will improve by more than 4 wins this season.
We will get more wins out of our starting pitching. Last year, nine pitchers started a game for us and got us 57 wins. Here was the breakdown (I've only counted wins earned as a starting pitcher):
Pitcher GS W
Colon 31 15
Wheeler 32 11
Niese 30 9
de Grom 22 9
Gee 22 7
Dice K 9 2
Montero 8 1
Mejia 7 3
Torres 1 0
The Top 5 remains almost the same, with Harvey slotting in for Wheeler. Do I think Colon wins 15 again this year? No, I don't. But I don't think 12 is out of the question, and if at his age he's "lost it", I think the Mets will be quick to dump him and bring up either Matz or Syndergaard, or promote Montero from the bullpen. Colon's spring numbers had me a little concerned (0-3, 7.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), until I looked back at the previous 2 years. Apparently Bartolo knows these games don't count. In 2013, he was 1-2/6.30 ERA/1.60 WHIP. In 2014 it was 1-1/5.28/1.24. My feeling is that as a very veteran pitcher, Colon knows he only has so many bullets in the barrel and doesn't want to waste any during the spring.
I'm also fairly confident that Harvey wins more games in 2015 than Wheeler did in 2014. For one, Harvey is a better pitcher. If you read my pre-Opening Day post last year, I said one of the keys to the Mets success would be for Wheeler to take that huge step up the way Harvey did in 2013. Sure, Wheeler pitched great in the 2nd half of the season, but did you ever get the feeling his starts were "must see" events? No one started saying, "It's Wheeler Day". Personally, I was more excited for de Grom starts. I don't think it's out of the question for Harvey to win 15 games, even with his soft innings cap. Strasburg won 15 his first full season back from TJ surgery, and as anyone who was at their match-up at Citi in 2013 knows, "Harvey's better!!!!!!"
Niese is like the perennially underachieving student I seem to have in class every year, the one who I know has the ability but can seem to do no better than low 80s. Having gotten 30 starts in last year, Niese should have had more than 9 wins. I'm willing to give him 11 this year because the talent is there for 11 or more.
de Grom has done nothing this spring (3-0, 2.08 ERA, 25 K in 26 IP, only 4 walks, 0.73 WHIP) to suggest he was a one year "flash in the pan". With a full year ahead of him, I don't think 12 wins is unreasonable. And if Gee stays healthy (and on the team), he has the talent to win 10 games (in the 2 years he's gotten 30+ starts, he's won 13 and 12 games).
If you've done the math, that's 60 wins from our top 5 starters, as compared to 51 last year.
While I'm talking about wins from starters (for all you sabremetricians out there, I know, I know, wins is an old school stat), I decided to look at how many wins from starters the playoff teams got as I thought the 57 the Mets got was awfully low.
Team Wins Wins from starters
Angels 98 68
Nats 96 70
Orioles 96 68
Dodgers 94 76
Tigers 90 68
Cards 90 64
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Royals 89 61
A's 88 62
Giants 88 56
Pirates 88 55
The six division winners averaged 69 wins from the starters, while the four wild card teams averaged 58.5. If the Mets can get 60 from their starters, they'll be in a good position to claim a wild card spot.
Another thing I was curious about was what percent of Mets wins were earned by the starters. The starters accounted for 72.2% of their wins. For the six division winners combined, it worked out to 73.4% (with the Dodgers being the highest at 80.9% and the Angels being the lowest at 69.4%). For the four wild card teams, it was 66.3% (with a high of 70.5% for the A's and a low of 62.5% for the Pirates). So as one would expect, the very good teams have their starters earn a high percentage of their teams' wins. In that aspect, the Mets were right where they needed to be. (For comparisons sake, the three worst teams in baseball, the D'Backs, Rockies, and Rangers only had their starters get 65.5% of their wins).
Our offense will be better. This reason is a lot simpler and requires me to throw out far less stats. The Mets won 79 games last year with one player (Duda) having a career year, and 2 players (Wright and Granderson) having very sub-par years (okay, maybe Grandy's was only sub-par, but David's was definitely very sub-par). I know Murphy was an All-Star, but his numbers were pretty much in line with what you'd expect from him, and the fact he was chosen as our All-Star really speaks to a lack of any other choice. We got no production from the catching position prior to d'Arnaud's recall from Vegas. We got nothing from SS for most of the year. Flores over the course of a full year will be a tremendous upgrade from Tejada. In about 100 fewer ABs (259 vs. 355), Flores only had 5 fewer RBI than Tejada (34 vs. 29). Plus, Tejada struck out a ton ( 73 K), while Flores only had 31 (which over 600 ABs only projects to 72 Ks). Lagares looks like he will improve on last year's numbers, as you hope any young player will do, and Cuddyer is an upgrade to the lineup as well. I think just from an offensive point of view, we are four games better than last year.
Certainly the schedule does the Mets no favors, with them having to play the AL East this year, and of course 18 games against the Nats. But while the Nats have great pitching, they are showing that right now, they have some questions on the offensive side of the ball. Scherzer, Strasburg and Company can't pitch shutouts every night. But they do also get to play two of the (projected) weakest teams, the Phils and Braves, 18 times apiece as well.
Finally, I think you can't underestimate the impact of Harvey's return. I know he only pitches every fifth game, but he just seems like a guy who HATES to lose. Some players just by their presence make the rest of the team better. I believe Harvey is one of those guys. And though the spotlight shines bright on everyone who plays in NYC, in Harvey you have someone who is willing to stand in that spotlight and perhaps shield some of his teammates from it.
If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet the over in a heartbeat on an 83 win season. I think the Mets will win 88 games this year and earn a wild card, and wouldn't be surprised if they hit that magic number of 90. It's time to believe again!
We will get more wins out of our starting pitching. Last year, nine pitchers started a game for us and got us 57 wins. Here was the breakdown (I've only counted wins earned as a starting pitcher):
Pitcher GS W
Colon 31 15
Wheeler 32 11
Niese 30 9
de Grom 22 9
Gee 22 7
Dice K 9 2
Montero 8 1
Mejia 7 3
Torres 1 0
The Top 5 remains almost the same, with Harvey slotting in for Wheeler. Do I think Colon wins 15 again this year? No, I don't. But I don't think 12 is out of the question, and if at his age he's "lost it", I think the Mets will be quick to dump him and bring up either Matz or Syndergaard, or promote Montero from the bullpen. Colon's spring numbers had me a little concerned (0-3, 7.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), until I looked back at the previous 2 years. Apparently Bartolo knows these games don't count. In 2013, he was 1-2/6.30 ERA/1.60 WHIP. In 2014 it was 1-1/5.28/1.24. My feeling is that as a very veteran pitcher, Colon knows he only has so many bullets in the barrel and doesn't want to waste any during the spring.
I'm also fairly confident that Harvey wins more games in 2015 than Wheeler did in 2014. For one, Harvey is a better pitcher. If you read my pre-Opening Day post last year, I said one of the keys to the Mets success would be for Wheeler to take that huge step up the way Harvey did in 2013. Sure, Wheeler pitched great in the 2nd half of the season, but did you ever get the feeling his starts were "must see" events? No one started saying, "It's Wheeler Day". Personally, I was more excited for de Grom starts. I don't think it's out of the question for Harvey to win 15 games, even with his soft innings cap. Strasburg won 15 his first full season back from TJ surgery, and as anyone who was at their match-up at Citi in 2013 knows, "Harvey's better!!!!!!"
Niese is like the perennially underachieving student I seem to have in class every year, the one who I know has the ability but can seem to do no better than low 80s. Having gotten 30 starts in last year, Niese should have had more than 9 wins. I'm willing to give him 11 this year because the talent is there for 11 or more.
de Grom has done nothing this spring (3-0, 2.08 ERA, 25 K in 26 IP, only 4 walks, 0.73 WHIP) to suggest he was a one year "flash in the pan". With a full year ahead of him, I don't think 12 wins is unreasonable. And if Gee stays healthy (and on the team), he has the talent to win 10 games (in the 2 years he's gotten 30+ starts, he's won 13 and 12 games).
If you've done the math, that's 60 wins from our top 5 starters, as compared to 51 last year.
While I'm talking about wins from starters (for all you sabremetricians out there, I know, I know, wins is an old school stat), I decided to look at how many wins from starters the playoff teams got as I thought the 57 the Mets got was awfully low.
Team Wins Wins from starters
Angels 98 68
Nats 96 70
Orioles 96 68
Dodgers 94 76
Tigers 90 68
Cards 90 64
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Royals 89 61
A's 88 62
Giants 88 56
Pirates 88 55
The six division winners averaged 69 wins from the starters, while the four wild card teams averaged 58.5. If the Mets can get 60 from their starters, they'll be in a good position to claim a wild card spot.
Another thing I was curious about was what percent of Mets wins were earned by the starters. The starters accounted for 72.2% of their wins. For the six division winners combined, it worked out to 73.4% (with the Dodgers being the highest at 80.9% and the Angels being the lowest at 69.4%). For the four wild card teams, it was 66.3% (with a high of 70.5% for the A's and a low of 62.5% for the Pirates). So as one would expect, the very good teams have their starters earn a high percentage of their teams' wins. In that aspect, the Mets were right where they needed to be. (For comparisons sake, the three worst teams in baseball, the D'Backs, Rockies, and Rangers only had their starters get 65.5% of their wins).
Our offense will be better. This reason is a lot simpler and requires me to throw out far less stats. The Mets won 79 games last year with one player (Duda) having a career year, and 2 players (Wright and Granderson) having very sub-par years (okay, maybe Grandy's was only sub-par, but David's was definitely very sub-par). I know Murphy was an All-Star, but his numbers were pretty much in line with what you'd expect from him, and the fact he was chosen as our All-Star really speaks to a lack of any other choice. We got no production from the catching position prior to d'Arnaud's recall from Vegas. We got nothing from SS for most of the year. Flores over the course of a full year will be a tremendous upgrade from Tejada. In about 100 fewer ABs (259 vs. 355), Flores only had 5 fewer RBI than Tejada (34 vs. 29). Plus, Tejada struck out a ton ( 73 K), while Flores only had 31 (which over 600 ABs only projects to 72 Ks). Lagares looks like he will improve on last year's numbers, as you hope any young player will do, and Cuddyer is an upgrade to the lineup as well. I think just from an offensive point of view, we are four games better than last year.
Certainly the schedule does the Mets no favors, with them having to play the AL East this year, and of course 18 games against the Nats. But while the Nats have great pitching, they are showing that right now, they have some questions on the offensive side of the ball. Scherzer, Strasburg and Company can't pitch shutouts every night. But they do also get to play two of the (projected) weakest teams, the Phils and Braves, 18 times apiece as well.
Finally, I think you can't underestimate the impact of Harvey's return. I know he only pitches every fifth game, but he just seems like a guy who HATES to lose. Some players just by their presence make the rest of the team better. I believe Harvey is one of those guys. And though the spotlight shines bright on everyone who plays in NYC, in Harvey you have someone who is willing to stand in that spotlight and perhaps shield some of his teammates from it.
If I were a betting man, and I am, I would bet the over in a heartbeat on an 83 win season. I think the Mets will win 88 games this year and earn a wild card, and wouldn't be surprised if they hit that magic number of 90. It's time to believe again!
Monday, January 12, 2015
Queens Baseball Convention
Let me start with a little self promotion, something I am horrible at, probably because I just do this blog as a hobby. If you like what you read here, please share it with fellow Mets fans. You can also follow me on Twitter @TomVereline and this way you'll always know when I update the blog.
So I'm typing this as I sit in my green mezzanine seats from Shea Stadium, counting the days until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. Believe it or not, that happens in little over a month. After taking off from being a dad on Saturday so I could attend the Queens Baseball Convention, it was back to full-time parenthood on Sunday, with an away basketball game for my younger son followed by a home game (and kitchen duty) for my older son, so I couldn't find the time to share my thoughts on the QBC until now.
I first want to thank two of the primary organizers of the QBC, Shannon and Keith, for allowing me to be a small part of the day's festivities. Back in November, as I was putting some Mets baseball cards into a binder, I realized that I have this great collection of Mets baseball cards and no one ever gets to see it. So I took a chance and sent the guys an email asking if I could bring my cards to the QBC to share with my fellow Mets fans. Not knowing me from a hole in the wall, I wasn't sure what kind of response I'd get back from them, but I got a pretty quick one and they were more than open to the idea. I can only imagine the amount of hard work they and all the organizers put into the day, but it was well worth it. If you are a Mets fan, you should definitely plan to be at QBC2016. I also have to thank one of the volunteers (sorry I forgot his name) who was taking pictures at the Wally Backman autograph session and texting/emailing them to people.
Now, if you are looking for a comprehensive review of what took place at the QBC, guess what? I can't give it to you! My original plan was to display my cards for awhile, then to pack up shop and take in a few of the panels that were scheduled. But that plan never came to fruition as I kept my cards on display the entire time. Was I upset that I missed the Retired Numbers Panel, or the Best Baseball Movie panel, or hearing Mookie or Wally speak? Not really because I got to spend the day meeting tons of fellow Mets fans and talking Mets baseball and baseball cards with them.
I got to meet Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) who writes for MetsBlog.com and works for mlb.com. I talked baseball cards with Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick), who was an SNY Kids Clubhouse correspondent and was kind enough to give me a Zack Wheeler and a Mike Piazza card he pulled out of a box he bought at the QBC. I learned a ton from @CollectTheMets whose collection of Mets cards DWARFS mine and is far more organized than I could ever hope to be. On line waiting for Wally's autograph, I relived the agony of the last game at Shea with some fellow fans, one of whom has orange seats from Shea and blue seats from Veterans Stadium in his backyard (home and away, which I thought was a great idea). I spent time talking to a guy at the bar (Scotty?) who was wearing a soccer jersey and watching a game on his phone. He was interested to get my take on the Sell the Club billboard that is going up (There are way better ways to spend your money Mets fans, don't waste it on a stupid billboard that won't change anything!!!). I debated Keith Hernandez's Hall of Fame worthiness with another fan (My feeling is that if Ozzie Smith, who was a great defensive player, 13 Gold Gloves, and a mediocre offensive player is in, than Keith, who was a great defensive player, 11 Gold Gloves, and a VERY GOOD (and clutch) offensive player (batting title, 1979 co-MVP) should be in as well), who wasn't quite willing to buy my argument.
I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. For someone who lives and bleeds Mets baseball, this was the perfect shot of adrenaline I needed to carry me through the next few weeks until pitchers and catchers report. So while I don't think my cards will be back next year, I know I certainly will be!
So I'm typing this as I sit in my green mezzanine seats from Shea Stadium, counting the days until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. Believe it or not, that happens in little over a month. After taking off from being a dad on Saturday so I could attend the Queens Baseball Convention, it was back to full-time parenthood on Sunday, with an away basketball game for my younger son followed by a home game (and kitchen duty) for my older son, so I couldn't find the time to share my thoughts on the QBC until now.
I first want to thank two of the primary organizers of the QBC, Shannon and Keith, for allowing me to be a small part of the day's festivities. Back in November, as I was putting some Mets baseball cards into a binder, I realized that I have this great collection of Mets baseball cards and no one ever gets to see it. So I took a chance and sent the guys an email asking if I could bring my cards to the QBC to share with my fellow Mets fans. Not knowing me from a hole in the wall, I wasn't sure what kind of response I'd get back from them, but I got a pretty quick one and they were more than open to the idea. I can only imagine the amount of hard work they and all the organizers put into the day, but it was well worth it. If you are a Mets fan, you should definitely plan to be at QBC2016. I also have to thank one of the volunteers (sorry I forgot his name) who was taking pictures at the Wally Backman autograph session and texting/emailing them to people.
Now, if you are looking for a comprehensive review of what took place at the QBC, guess what? I can't give it to you! My original plan was to display my cards for awhile, then to pack up shop and take in a few of the panels that were scheduled. But that plan never came to fruition as I kept my cards on display the entire time. Was I upset that I missed the Retired Numbers Panel, or the Best Baseball Movie panel, or hearing Mookie or Wally speak? Not really because I got to spend the day meeting tons of fellow Mets fans and talking Mets baseball and baseball cards with them.
I got to meet Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) who writes for MetsBlog.com and works for mlb.com. I talked baseball cards with Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick), who was an SNY Kids Clubhouse correspondent and was kind enough to give me a Zack Wheeler and a Mike Piazza card he pulled out of a box he bought at the QBC. I learned a ton from @CollectTheMets whose collection of Mets cards DWARFS mine and is far more organized than I could ever hope to be. On line waiting for Wally's autograph, I relived the agony of the last game at Shea with some fellow fans, one of whom has orange seats from Shea and blue seats from Veterans Stadium in his backyard (home and away, which I thought was a great idea). I spent time talking to a guy at the bar (Scotty?) who was wearing a soccer jersey and watching a game on his phone. He was interested to get my take on the Sell the Club billboard that is going up (There are way better ways to spend your money Mets fans, don't waste it on a stupid billboard that won't change anything!!!). I debated Keith Hernandez's Hall of Fame worthiness with another fan (My feeling is that if Ozzie Smith, who was a great defensive player, 13 Gold Gloves, and a mediocre offensive player is in, than Keith, who was a great defensive player, 11 Gold Gloves, and a VERY GOOD (and clutch) offensive player (batting title, 1979 co-MVP) should be in as well), who wasn't quite willing to buy my argument.
I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. For someone who lives and bleeds Mets baseball, this was the perfect shot of adrenaline I needed to carry me through the next few weeks until pitchers and catchers report. So while I don't think my cards will be back next year, I know I certainly will be!
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Looking back on the 2014 season.
With the year coming to an end, some free time on my hands, and with less than 100 days until Opening Day, I figured it would be a good time to look back on the 2014 season as we eagerly anticipate what all Mets fans hope will be an exciting 2015 season.
But before I do that, I just want to mention that as we await the days until Spring Training begins, there is the Queens Baseball Convention on Saturday January 10th at McFadden's CitiField. I'll be displaying my Mets baseball card collection at the QBC, which if nothing else has gotten me to organize it a little better. I have cards of close to 600 players, ranging from the greats (Seaver, Piazza, Strawberry, Gooden, Mays) to the "Remember him?" (Bruce Boisclair, Skip Lockwood, Bob Bailor, Pete Harnisch) to prospects who never played for the Mets at the MLB level (Noel Devarez, Ambiorix Concepcion, Tyler Pill). Highlights of my collection include:
Okay, now that that's out of the way, onto my look back at the 2014 season. If you know me at all, or you've read any of my previous posts, you know I'm a stats guy. What I mean by that is not that I'm into all those fancy sabremetric stats like batting average on balls in play, or line drive ratios, but stats that help refute misbeliefs that people have. For example, on a Mets fan Facebook page ("True Mets Fans", not to be confused with "True New York Mets fans"), the question was recently posted, "Up 1 run, 3 outs away from winning the World Series, which Mets closer, from any era, do you bring in to slam the door shut?" Answers ran the gamut from true closers like Tug and Jesse to people saying they'd bring in Seaver or Harvey to get the job done. A person who got a few mentions was Billy Wagner. Sounds like a good choice until you look at Billy's career playoff stats. The man was anything but clutch come crunch time. Read my post from last summer where I graded Mets free agent signings over the years, and you'll see what I mean. Often times, perception doesn't match reality.
Case in point. Two of the most common things you heard about the 2014 season were, "If we had a healthy David Wright..." and "If Curtis Granderson had produced the way he did in his healthy seasons with the Yanks..." They are certainly both valid statements. David was anything but the David Wright we've come to expect, and Curtis's production, while nice, was nowhere near what he did for the Yankees when healthy. But let's look at some numbers:
Here's the funny thing. David and Curtis both produced in May and June. In May, David had 9 doubles, 3 HR, 15 RBI (which equals 90 over a full season), and batted .320. He slipped in June a bit, especially with his batting average, .233, but still had 8 doubles, 2 HR, 11 RBI. Combine his numbers from May/June and over the course of the season you'd get 51 doubles (which would be a team record), 15 HR, and 78 RBI. Not fantastic numbers, but pretty decent. Curtis went 5HR/16RBI/.253 in May, and 5HR/13RBI/.300 in June. Over a full season, that's 30HR and 87 RBI. So the simple truth is, when David and Curtis did produce in May and June, the Mets didn't win. But again, how many times did you hear Mets fans use David and Curtis as an excuse for why our record wasn't better?
There were basically two things that kept the Mets from really being in playoff contention in 2014. First off, they stunk when it came to playing the Nats. They blew the win against them Opening Day and it was pretty much downhill from there. They went 4-14 against them. Take out the 18 games against them and the Mets go 75-69. That's a .521 %, which over 162 games produces 84 wins. Last year the two wild card team, the Pirates and Giants, both had 88 wins (.543%). This is clearly a concern since the Mets will have to play the Nats 18 times again this year. If the Mets are going to have any hopes of being a playoff team in 2015, I think they have to play close to .500 ball against the Nationals. Obviously, better than .500 would be great, but we are talking about a team that won 96 games last year and beat the Mets in the division by 17 games, so I think just getting to .500 against them would be a HUGE step for the Mets.
The other thing that really hurt the Mets was their record in 1-run games, especially early in the season. For the year, they ended up 26-29, but from April-June, they were 10-19. In May alone they were a horrendous 2-10. The first half of the season, they had a lot of trouble winning the close games, so it's no surprise they were 9 games under .500. As good as they were in the 2nd half (their .532% would've produced 86 wins over a full season), they were even better in 1-run games, going 16-10 (.615%). If .615 had been their winning percentage for all 55 one-run games, they would've gone 34-21 in them, and the Mets overall record would've been 87-75. It's pretty clear why the Mets were so awful in 1-run games early in the season. Other than me, I think everyone got a shot at closing at some point during the first two months of the season. Until they settled on Mejia, Bobby Parnell (injured), Jose Valverde (released), Dice K (jack of all trades), and Kyle Farnsworth (released) all closed for the Mets at some point during April (technically March for Parnell) and May. Once the bullpen was finally settled, the Mets started winning on a more consistent basis.
I know there's plenty more to say about the 2014 season, but let's face it, with it being the end of December, it's pretty much all been said already. Rookie of the Year for de Grom. Gold Glove for Lagares. d'Arnaud producing like we anticipated after he returned from his short stay in Vegas. A breakout year for Duda. These, along with the return of The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, give all us Mets fans reason to hope in 2015. Having already secured my tickets for the Mets home opener (and hoping maybe to see the season opener in DC if I can get tickets), as always, I'll be happy to just be in the park!!
P.S. -- One last stat, the kind of goofy thing I always get a kick out of. I made it to 20 games last year. The Mets were 12-8, including winning 10 in a row for me at one point, which means a .488% team played .600% ball when I attended. Clearly, I am a good luck charm :-)
But before I do that, I just want to mention that as we await the days until Spring Training begins, there is the Queens Baseball Convention on Saturday January 10th at McFadden's CitiField. I'll be displaying my Mets baseball card collection at the QBC, which if nothing else has gotten me to organize it a little better. I have cards of close to 600 players, ranging from the greats (Seaver, Piazza, Strawberry, Gooden, Mays) to the "Remember him?" (Bruce Boisclair, Skip Lockwood, Bob Bailor, Pete Harnisch) to prospects who never played for the Mets at the MLB level (Noel Devarez, Ambiorix Concepcion, Tyler Pill). Highlights of my collection include:
- Every Original Mets card from 1962 (including Don Zimmer, who is shown as a Met, but is listed as a Red as he was traded that year)
- Over 100 Tom Seaver cards
- Over 600 Mike Piazza cards, including his 1992 Bowman rookie card
- Close to 200 David Wright cards
- Autograph cards including Tug McGraw, Jerry Koosman, Dave Kingman, and many from the 1986 Mets. Also, a David Wright autograph from 2003, the only card I ever mailed to a player and asked for an autograph in anticipation of David's career..
- Cards containing pieces of game-used uniforms and bats from a bunch of players
Okay, now that that's out of the way, onto my look back at the 2014 season. If you know me at all, or you've read any of my previous posts, you know I'm a stats guy. What I mean by that is not that I'm into all those fancy sabremetric stats like batting average on balls in play, or line drive ratios, but stats that help refute misbeliefs that people have. For example, on a Mets fan Facebook page ("True Mets Fans", not to be confused with "True New York Mets fans"), the question was recently posted, "Up 1 run, 3 outs away from winning the World Series, which Mets closer, from any era, do you bring in to slam the door shut?" Answers ran the gamut from true closers like Tug and Jesse to people saying they'd bring in Seaver or Harvey to get the job done. A person who got a few mentions was Billy Wagner. Sounds like a good choice until you look at Billy's career playoff stats. The man was anything but clutch come crunch time. Read my post from last summer where I graded Mets free agent signings over the years, and you'll see what I mean. Often times, perception doesn't match reality.
Case in point. Two of the most common things you heard about the 2014 season were, "If we had a healthy David Wright..." and "If Curtis Granderson had produced the way he did in his healthy seasons with the Yanks..." They are certainly both valid statements. David was anything but the David Wright we've come to expect, and Curtis's production, while nice, was nowhere near what he did for the Yankees when healthy. But let's look at some numbers:
- April-June the Mets were 37-46 (.446 winning percentage)
- July-Sept the Mets were 42-37 (.532)
- May and June were especially bad, with the Mets going 22-35 (.386)
Here's the funny thing. David and Curtis both produced in May and June. In May, David had 9 doubles, 3 HR, 15 RBI (which equals 90 over a full season), and batted .320. He slipped in June a bit, especially with his batting average, .233, but still had 8 doubles, 2 HR, 11 RBI. Combine his numbers from May/June and over the course of the season you'd get 51 doubles (which would be a team record), 15 HR, and 78 RBI. Not fantastic numbers, but pretty decent. Curtis went 5HR/16RBI/.253 in May, and 5HR/13RBI/.300 in June. Over a full season, that's 30HR and 87 RBI. So the simple truth is, when David and Curtis did produce in May and June, the Mets didn't win. But again, how many times did you hear Mets fans use David and Curtis as an excuse for why our record wasn't better?
There were basically two things that kept the Mets from really being in playoff contention in 2014. First off, they stunk when it came to playing the Nats. They blew the win against them Opening Day and it was pretty much downhill from there. They went 4-14 against them. Take out the 18 games against them and the Mets go 75-69. That's a .521 %, which over 162 games produces 84 wins. Last year the two wild card team, the Pirates and Giants, both had 88 wins (.543%). This is clearly a concern since the Mets will have to play the Nats 18 times again this year. If the Mets are going to have any hopes of being a playoff team in 2015, I think they have to play close to .500 ball against the Nationals. Obviously, better than .500 would be great, but we are talking about a team that won 96 games last year and beat the Mets in the division by 17 games, so I think just getting to .500 against them would be a HUGE step for the Mets.
The other thing that really hurt the Mets was their record in 1-run games, especially early in the season. For the year, they ended up 26-29, but from April-June, they were 10-19. In May alone they were a horrendous 2-10. The first half of the season, they had a lot of trouble winning the close games, so it's no surprise they were 9 games under .500. As good as they were in the 2nd half (their .532% would've produced 86 wins over a full season), they were even better in 1-run games, going 16-10 (.615%). If .615 had been their winning percentage for all 55 one-run games, they would've gone 34-21 in them, and the Mets overall record would've been 87-75. It's pretty clear why the Mets were so awful in 1-run games early in the season. Other than me, I think everyone got a shot at closing at some point during the first two months of the season. Until they settled on Mejia, Bobby Parnell (injured), Jose Valverde (released), Dice K (jack of all trades), and Kyle Farnsworth (released) all closed for the Mets at some point during April (technically March for Parnell) and May. Once the bullpen was finally settled, the Mets started winning on a more consistent basis.
I know there's plenty more to say about the 2014 season, but let's face it, with it being the end of December, it's pretty much all been said already. Rookie of the Year for de Grom. Gold Glove for Lagares. d'Arnaud producing like we anticipated after he returned from his short stay in Vegas. A breakout year for Duda. These, along with the return of The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, give all us Mets fans reason to hope in 2015. Having already secured my tickets for the Mets home opener (and hoping maybe to see the season opener in DC if I can get tickets), as always, I'll be happy to just be in the park!!
P.S. -- One last stat, the kind of goofy thing I always get a kick out of. I made it to 20 games last year. The Mets were 12-8, including winning 10 in a row for me at one point, which means a .488% team played .600% ball when I attended. Clearly, I am a good luck charm :-)
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Joel Sherman's article in the NY Post, "The Mets Can Take Ownership of NY from the Yanks - Right Now" http://nypost.com/2014/07/14/the-mets-can-take-ownership-of-ny-from-the-yanks-right-now/ brings to mind a letter to the editor I wrote that was published in Beckett Baseball, a monthly magazine for baseball card collectors, back in May 2005. My letter was in response to an article a previous month, an article whose author, like Sherman in his article today, seems to have forgotten that the Mets did in fact once own the city. Here's my letter, which Beckett headlined with "There's An "NY" On Mets' Caps, Too"
I enjoyed reading your article about the Mets in the March issue of Beckett Baseball. However, as a lifelong Mets fan, I have to take umbrage with the statements, "That's not to say the Mets are ready to overtake the Yankees as the team in New York. Quite frankly, that will never happen" and "In good times and bad, the Yankees own this town." Apparently writer Mike McAllister wasn't in NYC in the mid- and late 1980s when this was the Mets' town. A quick look at attendance records shows that from 1984-1992, the Mets outdrew the Yankees each of those years, and over that span the Mets drew almost four million more fans to Queens than the Yankees did to the Bronx. They also did what the Yankees have done for the past 10 years - own the backpages of NYC's papers. While it's true they will never be able to match the history of the Yankees (what team can?), the fact is the Mets have shown in the past that NYC can be their town.
I enjoyed reading your article about the Mets in the March issue of Beckett Baseball. However, as a lifelong Mets fan, I have to take umbrage with the statements, "That's not to say the Mets are ready to overtake the Yankees as the team in New York. Quite frankly, that will never happen" and "In good times and bad, the Yankees own this town." Apparently writer Mike McAllister wasn't in NYC in the mid- and late 1980s when this was the Mets' town. A quick look at attendance records shows that from 1984-1992, the Mets outdrew the Yankees each of those years, and over that span the Mets drew almost four million more fans to Queens than the Yankees did to the Bronx. They also did what the Yankees have done for the past 10 years - own the backpages of NYC's papers. While it's true they will never be able to match the history of the Yankees (what team can?), the fact is the Mets have shown in the past that NYC can be their town.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
Mid-season assessment
Of course, the All-Star Game break isn't really the mid-season break. Having played their 95th game today, the Mets passed that point about two weeks ago. Still, now's as good a time as any to look back at my post (the one entitled "Baseball's back and so am I") where I listed 10 things that had to go right in order for the Mets to reach Sandy Alderson's goal of 90 wins. At 45-50, the Mets have their work count out for them. They'd have to go 45-22 the remainder of the way, which is a .672 winning percentage. How good is a .672 winning percentage? Do that over a full season and you win 109 games. Even hitting my preseason prediction of 82 will be tough, although if this most recent homestand is an indication of how they'll do the rest of the way, then maybe they do have a shot at both 82 and 90 wins.
1. Stay healthy. While they haven't been decimated with injuries like the Rangers have, they've had their fair share. Juan Lagares, one of their best hitters, has had 2 separate stints on the DL. Dillon Gee, arguably their best pitcher, missed nearly 2 months. Eric Young had a stint on the DL, and Jon Niese currently resides there. David Wright avoided the DL with rest, but missed a week of games, although in his case, the time off seems to have done him good.
2. Bartolo Colon I said we needed 30-34 starts from him and at least 14 wins. So far he's on pace for both of them. He's been very good occasionally, adequate most of the time, and he's eating up innings. I think how the Mets do on their first post-ASG road trip will determine if he's still here after the trading deadline.
3. Ike Davis Wow, did I blow this one big time. I basically said that Ike had to be the Ike from the 2nd half of 2012. I really thought he would claim the 1B job in April since neither he nor Lucas Duda were able to claim it during spring training. However, after a somewhat slow start, Duda is doing what I thought Ike needed to do for us to win 90 games. He's on pace for about 80-85 RBI. Throw in a good hot streak, and maybe he'll get to 90.
4. Curtis Granderson I said Granderson needs to be Granderson. Throw out that horrendous April, and he's been what you'd expect from him, although I'm surprised at how weak his arm is. I guess playing in that small RF at Yankee Stadium, that never got exposed.
5. Zach Wheeler Wheeler has not made that giant leap forward this year like Matt Harvey did last year. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he hasn't even come close to dominating the way Harvey did last year. I think if he remains part of the Mets long term plans, he'll be a really dependable #3 starter.
6. Travis d'Arnaud Three weeks ago, this is another one of the 10 things that had absolutely no chance of being accurate, and given that there are only 67 games left, d'Arnaud has some work to do if he's going to hit some of the goals I thought he'd need to hit for us to win 90 games. I was hoping for .275, 10HR, 20+ 2B, and 60RBI. He's got a shot at the HR and 2B, but unless he REALLY catches fire, I doubt he'll get his average up to .275 or come anywhere near 60RBI. But....since his stint in Las Vegas, he has shown he belongs here.
7. Dillon Gee Gee has done what I said he needed to do, but unfortunately missed too much time with an injury. I'd like to say if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd at least be a .500 team now, but the truth is, our record isn't 45-50 due to starting pitching. Chalk that up to our lack of clutch hitting.
8. Innings from our #5 starter. I'm not sure who the Mets consider their #5 starter, Jacob de Grom or Dice-K, but they've both given them innings. de Grom has pitched 6+ innings in 8 of his 12 starts, and Dice-K in 5 of his 8 (I'm not counting the one start he left after 1 inning due to a stomach bug).
9. A rookie pitcher needs to step up and contribute I, along with nearly every other Mets fan, was hoping that rookie would be Noah Syndergaard. It hasn't quite worked out that way. But Jacob de Grom has come up and pitched much better than his record of 3-5 would indicate.
10. David Wright My comment back in March was that we didn't sign David for 8 years to be an 80RBI guy. Well, he's on pace for about 80-85 RBI, and only 14 HR. If he can get hot, there's no doubt he can get his average up over .300 (.285 at the ASG break), but I think once again he'll fall short of 90 RBI.
Biggest surprises: Bobby Abreu (who saw that coming), Eric Campbell, Jacob de Grom, Jenrry Mejia as a closer
Biggest disappointments: Chris Young, Travis d'Arnaud before his demotion, everyone with the bases loaded
1. Stay healthy. While they haven't been decimated with injuries like the Rangers have, they've had their fair share. Juan Lagares, one of their best hitters, has had 2 separate stints on the DL. Dillon Gee, arguably their best pitcher, missed nearly 2 months. Eric Young had a stint on the DL, and Jon Niese currently resides there. David Wright avoided the DL with rest, but missed a week of games, although in his case, the time off seems to have done him good.
2. Bartolo Colon I said we needed 30-34 starts from him and at least 14 wins. So far he's on pace for both of them. He's been very good occasionally, adequate most of the time, and he's eating up innings. I think how the Mets do on their first post-ASG road trip will determine if he's still here after the trading deadline.
3. Ike Davis Wow, did I blow this one big time. I basically said that Ike had to be the Ike from the 2nd half of 2012. I really thought he would claim the 1B job in April since neither he nor Lucas Duda were able to claim it during spring training. However, after a somewhat slow start, Duda is doing what I thought Ike needed to do for us to win 90 games. He's on pace for about 80-85 RBI. Throw in a good hot streak, and maybe he'll get to 90.
4. Curtis Granderson I said Granderson needs to be Granderson. Throw out that horrendous April, and he's been what you'd expect from him, although I'm surprised at how weak his arm is. I guess playing in that small RF at Yankee Stadium, that never got exposed.
5. Zach Wheeler Wheeler has not made that giant leap forward this year like Matt Harvey did last year. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he hasn't even come close to dominating the way Harvey did last year. I think if he remains part of the Mets long term plans, he'll be a really dependable #3 starter.
6. Travis d'Arnaud Three weeks ago, this is another one of the 10 things that had absolutely no chance of being accurate, and given that there are only 67 games left, d'Arnaud has some work to do if he's going to hit some of the goals I thought he'd need to hit for us to win 90 games. I was hoping for .275, 10HR, 20+ 2B, and 60RBI. He's got a shot at the HR and 2B, but unless he REALLY catches fire, I doubt he'll get his average up to .275 or come anywhere near 60RBI. But....since his stint in Las Vegas, he has shown he belongs here.
7. Dillon Gee Gee has done what I said he needed to do, but unfortunately missed too much time with an injury. I'd like to say if he hadn't gone on the DL we'd at least be a .500 team now, but the truth is, our record isn't 45-50 due to starting pitching. Chalk that up to our lack of clutch hitting.
8. Innings from our #5 starter. I'm not sure who the Mets consider their #5 starter, Jacob de Grom or Dice-K, but they've both given them innings. de Grom has pitched 6+ innings in 8 of his 12 starts, and Dice-K in 5 of his 8 (I'm not counting the one start he left after 1 inning due to a stomach bug).
9. A rookie pitcher needs to step up and contribute I, along with nearly every other Mets fan, was hoping that rookie would be Noah Syndergaard. It hasn't quite worked out that way. But Jacob de Grom has come up and pitched much better than his record of 3-5 would indicate.
10. David Wright My comment back in March was that we didn't sign David for 8 years to be an 80RBI guy. Well, he's on pace for about 80-85 RBI, and only 14 HR. If he can get hot, there's no doubt he can get his average up over .300 (.285 at the ASG break), but I think once again he'll fall short of 90 RBI.
Biggest surprises: Bobby Abreu (who saw that coming), Eric Campbell, Jacob de Grom, Jenrry Mejia as a closer
Biggest disappointments: Chris Young, Travis d'Arnaud before his demotion, everyone with the bases loaded
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